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Predicting future climate change is one of the biggest scientific and societal challenges facing humankind. Whist carbon emissions from human activities are the main determinant of future climate change, the response of the earth system is also extremely important. Earth system processes provide 'feedbacks' to climate change, either reinforcing upward trends in greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature (positive feedbacks) or sometimes dampening them (negative feedbacks). A crucial feedback loop is formed by the terrestrial global carbon cycle and the climate. As carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and temperature rise, carbon fixation by plants increases due to the CO2 fertilisation effect and the lengthening of the growing season at high latitudes (this is a negative feedback). But at the same time, increasing temperatures lead to increased decomposition of the carbon stored in soils and this results in more carbon dioxide being released back to the atmosphere (this is a positive feedback). The balance of these competing processes is especially important for peatlands because they are very large carbon stores. Northern Hemisphere peatlands hold about the same amount of carbon that is stored in all the world's living vegetation including forests, so determining the response of this large carbon store to future climate change is especially critical. One hypothesis is that warming will increase decomposition rates in peatland soils to such an extent that large amounts of carbon will be released in the future. However, the vast majority of peatlands are in relatively cold and wet areas and evidence from past changes in accumulation rates suggest that for these regions, warming may lead to increased productivity that more than compensates for any increase in decay rates, leading to increased carbon sequestration overall. Furthermore, in the northernmost areas of the Arctic, there is potential for further lateral expansion of peatlands, increasing the total area over which peat accumulates. We intend to answer the question of whether changes in accumulation in Arctic peatlands plus the increased spread of peatlands in cold regions will lead to an overall increase in their carbon storage capacity. Our approach will be to use a novel combination of data from the fossil record stored in peatlands together with satellite data to test a global model that simulates changes in both carbon accumulation rates and the extent of peatland vegetation over Arctic regions. If we can demonstrate that the model performs well in simulations of past changes, we can then confidently use it to make projections of future changes in response to warming for several hundred years into the future. We know that fluctuations in Arctic climate over the past 1000 years should have been sufficient to drive changes in peat accumulation rates and lateral spread, so we are focusing our analyses on this period. In particular, we know there were increases in temperature over the last 150-200 years and especially over the last 30-40 years. If our hypothesis that increased temperature leads to increasing accumulation and spread of Arctic peatlands is correct, we expect to see the evidence for this in the fossil record of peat accumulation and spread, and also in satellite data of vegetation change. Our previous work and our new pilot studies show that we can reconstruct accumulation rate changes and also that our proposed remote sensing techniques can detect peatland vegetation increases since the mid-1980s, so we are confident in our methodology. The model will provide estimates of northern peatland carbon storage change for different climate change scenarios over the next century and longer term to the year 2300. If we can show that there is a potential increase or even no change in carbon storage in Arctic peatlands, it will radically change our perception of the role of the Arctic terrestrial carbon store in mediating climate change.

COMFORT will close knowledge gaps for key ocean tipping elements under anthropogenic physical and chemical climate forcing through an interdisciplinary research approach. It will provide added value to decision and policy makers in terms of science based safe marine operating spaces, refined climate mitigation targets, and feasible long-term mitigation pathways. We will determine the consequences of passing tipping points in physical tipping elements for the marine carbon, oxygen, and nutrient cycles, as well as tipping points in biogeochemical tipping elements. The respective impact on marine ecosystems will be determined. Projections of the Earth system and impact studies have so far been carried out sequentially in a chain from scenarios to projections to off-line impact studies. This sequential workflow has hampered a quick response of the impact community back to revised scenarios and projections for tackling climate mitigation. COMFORT breaks new ground by bringing together experts from Earth system science, oceanography, fisheries science and ecology in a single integrated project who will work in parallel with a consistent set of analysis tools, scenarios, and interoperable models. The strength of COMFORT lies in the system-focused interdisciplinary approach as opposed to existing studies at the level of individual subsystems. The approach will be pursued with a firm link to stakeholders. COMFORT results will contribute to all four expected impacts for this call.

Predicting the impact that combined natural and anthropogenic stressors have on ecological communities ranks as one of the most important research agendas in ecology. Climate change and the fragmentation of habitat are considered the two largest threats to the global environment. They are expected to impact on the diversity, composition and dynamics of the communities that underpin ecosystem services. Pollution and (over)harvesting of natural resources considerably complicate these impacts. It is safe to assume that communities are experiencing multiple, simultaneous challenges. It also seems easy to assume that combined threats might simply add up to generate impact. The more stressors, the more and worse the impact. However, it may be that, because of the way biology works, some stressors cancel each other out, or combine to be less impactful than expected. And, of course, the opposite is possible (and scary): stressors may exacerbate each other, leading to effects that are worse than expected compared to just adding their effects together. Unfortunately, we really have no idea about whether stress combines in an additive or non-additive fashion. And we have very rudimentary understanding of how feedbacks among population dynamics, community structure and ecosystem function operate under multiple stressors. We suggest, in fact, that the distribution of these additive or interactive effects can tell us something about how predictable and how generalizable are the effects of stressors. We propose to explore the distribution of additive and interactive effects caused by multiple stressors by building a model that allows biology to determine if stress adds up or not, and then comparing this to patterns in real data. Our unique contribution comes from recognising that some kinds of stress, like temperature, act on physiology and change the rates at which things like metabolism growth and reproduction happen. In contrast, some stressors simply kill things, either by harvesting or by direct impacts from things like pollution. We will build the first model that allows these distinctions to be accommodated, giving us the best chance of understanding how stressors combine to affect populations, the structure of communities and the ecosystem functions we rely upon.

The aim of this proposal is to establish a standard digital code for the synthesis of molecules. Like Spotify, which allows the distribution of music in an mp3 (or similar) digital format, the development of a chemical code for synthesis will allow users to share their code as a result of the digitisation 'Chemify' process. The code will be demonstrated both manually and on basic robotic systems available in our laboratory (GU) and with our international collaborators based in the USA (MB), Canada (AAG), Germany (PS), and Poland (BG) who are experts in modular organic scaffold synthesis (MB), computational chemistry and statistics for experimental design (AAG), robotic carbohydrate synthesis (PS), and networks and rules of chemical synthesis (BG). In the long term, the ability to automate the synthesis of molecules will lower the cost of manufacture by enabling the automatic and unbiased exploration of chemical space giving a digital code. Such codes are needed if chemists are to develop systems that ensure reproducibility, and the ability to explore new reactions and statistics driven design of experiments to target unknown molecules. Recently we took a key step to encoding a multi-step synthesis into a digital blueprint,1 but the vision to go from code to molecules represents a gigantic problem. In this proposal, we will aim to develop a chemical ontology for synthetic chemistry that will lead to the first version of a programming language for chemical synthesis. We will then demonstrate the code can be used to synthesise important molecules, already robotically synthesised by us, and examples from our collaborators in the USA, Germany, Canada and Poland on the same universal 'chemputer' synthesise robot.

Modern aeroplanes are well equipped to cope with most common icing conditions. However, some conditions consisting of supercooled large droplets (SLD) have been the cause of tragic accidents over the last three decades. It was proven that there are certain types of aircraft which are not robust against these conditions as ice can form on unprotected areas of the lifting surfaces leading to loss of control. Consequently, authorities addressed these safety concerns by issuing new certification rules under Appendix O to ensure that future aircraft remain controllable in these conditions and can exit safely upon detection. Hence, the key to increasing overall aviation icing safety is the early and reliable detection of icing conditions to allow the necessary actions to be taken by the flight crew. SENS4ICE (SENSors and certifiable hybrid architectures for safer aviation in ICing Environment) directly addresses this need for reliable detection and discrimination of icing conditions. It proposes that an intelligent way to cope with the complex problem of ice detection is the hybridisation of different detection techniques: direct sensing of atmospheric conditions and/or ice accretion on the airframe, combined with indirect techniques in which the change of aircraft characteristics with ice accretion on the airframe is detected. SENS4ICE will address the development, test, validation, and maturation of the different detection principles, the hybridisation - in close cooperation with regulators to provide an acceptable means of compliance - and the final airborne demonstration of technology capabilities in relevant natural icing conditions. The contribution of SENS4ICE to increase aviation safety will be achieved by an international consortium of 20 partners (13 EU, 7 non-EU) with contributions from Brazil, Canada, Russia and the US. The 4-year project requests an overall EU-funding of 6.6M€ and benefits from a further 5.4M€ of activities being provided by the non-EU partners.

Although the Ocean is a fundamental part of the global system providing a wealth of resources, there are fundamental gaps in ocean observing and forecasting systems, limiting our capacity in Europe to sustainably manage the ocean and its resources. Ocean observing is “big science” and cannot be solved by individual nations; it is necessary to ensure high-level integration for coordinated observations of the ocean that can be sustained in the long term. EuroSea brings together key European actors of ocean observation and forecasting with key end users of ocean observations, responding to the Future of the Seas and Oceans Flagship Initiative. Our vision is a truly interdisciplinary ocean observing system that delivers the essential ocean information needed for the wellbeing, blue growth and sustainable management of the ocean. EuroSea will strengthen the European and Global Ocean Observing System (EOOS and GOOS) and support its partners. EuroSea will increase the technology readiness levels (TRL) of critical components of ocean observations systems and tools, and in particular the TRL of the integrated ocean observing system. EuroSea will improve: European and international coordination; design of the observing system adapted to European needs; in situ observing networks; data delivery; integration of remote and in-situ data; and forecasting capability. EuroSea will work towards integrating individual observing elements to an integrated observing system, and will connect end-users with the operators of the observing system and information providers. EuroSea will demonstrate the utility of the European Ocean Observing System through three demonstration activities focused on operational services, ocean health and climate, where a dialogue between actors in the ocean observing system will guide the development of the services, including market replication and innovation supporting the development of the blue economy.

Hepatobiliary malignancies represent a major cause of mortality globally and are uniquely aggressive in Latin America. The most common tumors are: hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) affecting young individuals in Latin America and being the second most common cause of cancer-related death worldwide; cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) with minimal survival upon diagnosis and largely understudied in the region; gallbladder cancer (GBC) being a rare tumor worldwide but representing the second most common cause of cancer-related death in women in Chile. Key factors related to the excessive mortality of these tumors are the lack of reliable screening methods and the complexity of diagnosis, which requires advanced imaging technology and difficult-to-access tissue. These barriers are amplified by poor accessibility present in resource-limited regions, all of which leads to tumors being diagnosed at advanced stages in which curative therapy is not an option. To overcome these barriers, we propose to: A) validate immune-related markers in serum to predict HCC in South America and evaluate factors associated to early HCC development; B) define the utility of extracellular vesicles in serum as biomarkers for diagnosis of CCA and determine genetic and infectious factors that increase risk for this cancer; and C) identify biomarkers for GBC detection and evaluate novel immune factors that affect the geographical impact of this tumor. This project advances the field by focusing on a unique approach to screen and diagnose tumors based on serum detection of biomarkers before a tumor is visible on imaging, allowing for early tumor detection in a cost effective manner that will lead to implementation of curative therapies. In addition, this project addresses modifiable risk factors for hepatobiliary tumors that could be targeted for prevention. This project will result in novel tools that are easily accessible and will dramatically reduce the burden of cancer-related mortality in Latin America.

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.

ReCoDID builds on existing infrastructures and partnerships to develop a sustainable model for the storage, curation, and analyses of the complex data sets collected by infectious disease (ID)-related cohorts. While ID cohorts collect both clinical-epidemiological (CE) and terabytes of OMICS data, storage and analysis of CE and high dimensional laboratory (HDL) data remains separate and developing the infrastructure for housing and analysing HDL data is not feasible for individual studies. In this project, we develop innovative approaches to the synthesis and analysis of CE&HDL data, and modify governance models for cloud-based repositories elaborated by and for scientists in high-income countries to meet the specific challenges of synthesizing CE&HDL data and sharing data across international cohorts and with the Open Science community. We develop data architecture and governance that link biobanks to data repositories to facilitate equitable use, collaborative, cross-domain analyses, and replicability. The team leverages partnerships with multicentre ID cohorts in the global South, and connects EU investments in OMICS infrastructures with Canadian expertise on pipeline and workflow development, biostatistical methods, and ethical and governance issues related to the establishment of repositories for CE&HDL data in resource-limited settings. Drawing from best practice and governance elaborated for similar initiatives, the repository will employ a federated model where a tiered permission system and cohort-specific hubs facilitate cohorts’ analysis of their own data, cross-cohort analyses, and connections with the open science community within a clearly elaborated legal, ethical, and equitable framework. The cloud-based platform will provide analytic tools and computational power to facilitate cross-domain, collaborative analyses that inform personalized medicine approaches to diagnostic, treatment, and vaccine development in ID-focused international cohorts.

Rapid progress in information and biotechnologies offers the promise of better, personalized health strategies using rich phenotypic, environmental and molecular (omics) profiles of every individual. To capitalize on this great promise, key challenge is to relate these profiles to health and disease while accounting for high diversity in individuals, populations and environments. Both Europe and Canada have long-term investments in population-based prospective cohort studies providing essential longitudinal data. These data must be analysed in unison to reach statistical power, however, presently cohort data repositories are scattered, hard to search and integrate, and data protection and governance rules discourage central pooling. EUCAN-Connect will enable large-scale integrated cohort data analysis for personalized and preventive healthcare across EU and Canada. This will be based on an open, scalable data platform for cohorts, researchers and networks, incorporating FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) for optimal reuse of existing data, and building on maturing federated technologies, with sensitive data kept locally and only results being shared and integrated, in line with key ELSI and governance guidelines. Widespread uptake will be promoted via beyond state-of-the-art research in close collaboration with leading cohort networks, focused on early-life origins of cardio-metabolic, developmental, musculoskeletal and respiratory health and disease impacting human life course. To address challenges of sustainability and curation, we will deliver innovative solutions for distributed, low-cost data harvesting and preservation, community curation/harmonization, privacy protection, open source bioinformatics toolbox development, and international governance. EUCAN-Connect platform and collaborations will be coordinated through BBMRI-ERIC (EU) and Maelstrom Research (Canada) to sustain long-term benefits to science and citizens worldwide.