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Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides, and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide offshore Norway covers an area larger than Scotland and contains enough sediment to cover all of Scotland to a depth of 80 m. This huge slide occurred 8,200 years ago and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with a run up >20 m around the Norwegian Sea and 3-8 m on the Scottish mainland. The UK faces few other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat of the Storegga Slide tsunami. The Storegga Slide is not the only huge submarine slide in the Norwegian Sea. Published data suggest that there have been at least six such slides in the last 20,000 years. For instance, the Traenadjupet Slide occurred 4,000 years ago and involved ~900 km3 of sediment. Based on a recurrence interval of 4,000 years (2 events in the last 8,000 years, or 6 events in 20,000 years), there is a 5% probability of a major submarine slide, and possible tsunami, occurring in the next 200 years. Sedimentary deposits in Shetland dated at 1500 and 5500 years, in addition to the 8200 year Storegga deposit, are thought to indicate tsunami impacts and provide evidence that the Arctic tsunami hazard is still poorly understood. Given the potential impact of tsunamis generated by Arctic landslides, we need a rigorous assessment of the hazard they pose to the UK over the next 100-200 years, their potential cost to society, degree to which existing sea defences protect the UK, and how tsunami hazards could be incorporated into multi-hazard flood risk management. This project is timely because rapid climatic change in the Arctic could increase the risk posed by landslide-tsunamis. Crustal rebound associated with future ice melting may produce larger and more frequent earthquakes, such as probably triggered the Storegga Slide 8200 years ago. The Arctic is also predicted to undergo particularly rapid warming in the next few decades that could lead to dissociation of gas hydrates (ice-like compounds of methane and water) in marine sediments, weakening the sediment and potentially increasing the landsliding risk. Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs. This forms a work flow that starts with observations of past landslides and evolves through modelling of their consequences to predicting and costing the consequences of potential future landslides and associated tsunamis. Particular attention will be paid to societal impacts and mitigation strategies, including examination of the effectiveness of current sea defences. This will be achieved through engagement of stakeholders from the start of the project, including government agencies that manage UK flood risk, international bodies responsible for tsunami warning systems, and the re-insurance sector. The main deliverables will be: (i) better understanding of frequency of past Arctic landslides and resulting tsunami impact on the UK (ii) improved models for submarine landslides and associated tsunamis that help to understand why certain landslides cause tsunamis, and others don't. (iii) a single modelling strategy that starts with a coupled landslide-tsunami source, tracks propagation of the tsunami across the Norwegian Sea, and ends with inundation of the UK coast. Tsunami sources of various sizes and origins will be tested (iv) a detailed evaluation of the consequences and societal cost to the UK of tsunami flooding , including the effectiveness of existing flood defences (v) an assessment of how climate change may alter landslide frequency and thus tsunami risk to the UK.

Accounting for high genetic diversity in ecologically-important traits is a fundamental problem in evolutionary biology. Individuals vary enormously at the genetic level, even within local populations, and we do not understand why. Recent work implicates an advantage to rare types as a critical factor maintaining genetic variation in many species, but we have little understanding of how this process actually unfolds in the wild. To address this gap, we need to (1) understand how ecological and social interactions promote or erode genetic diversity, and (2) link these interactions among organisms directly to the genes underlying the traits that mediate these interactions. This project will link a genetically diverse trait in the Trinidad guppy (Poecilia reticulata) to the ecological and social interactions that shape its evolution, and to the underlying genes that shape this diversity. Our previous work indicates that interactions with predators and with potential mates both favour rare colour patterns in this species. To determine which of the processes is most responsible for promoting diversity, we will collect data on predation risk and mating behaviour in multiple natural populations and relate these data to the degree of genetically-based diversity in colour patterns. Then, using populations and closely related species that vary in their genetic diversity, we will use whole-genome DNA sequencing to identify genes that control this highly variable trait. This will allow us to determine how ecological and molecular processes interact to promote or constrain evolution under balancing selection. Finally, we will directly test the idea that interactions between potential mates can maintain diversity in this species by observing evolution in real time in experimental populations with different opportunities for mate choice.

Boreal regions hold upwards of 60% of the planet's freshwater, an essential ingredient for all life. But human activities, such as climate and land use change, are dramatically altering these landscapes and threatening the delivery of key services provided by aquatic ecosystems, such as clean drinking water and healthy fish populations. Contemporary paradigms of aquatic conservation have emphasized inputs of pollutants and water resource development as causes of declining water security and biodiversity, but restoration attempts are failing when these two factors alone are improved. Increasingly, local watersheds are seen as critical controls of aquatic ecosystems. This is spurred by the recent discovery that pathways of energy mobilization upwards through aquatic food webs - from microbes to fish - rely on organic matter originating from terrestrial vegetation, proving the adage that "clean water is a forest product". Any factor that changes the quality and quantity of organic matter input into freshwater from their surrounding catchments will clearly influence the delivery of aquatic ecosystem services. Fire, forest pests, and resource development, such as mining and logging, are emerging disturbances that are transforming boreal regions, but little is known as to how they will change long-term cycling of nutrients from terrestrial vegetation into aquatic ecosystems. A new watershed-level science that integrates the management of forestry and water resources is clearly needed to inform decision makers of the actions needed to conserve freshwater supplies by linking actions on land to processes in water. Our research will test whether the productivity of aquatic food webs increases with the quantity and quality of terrestrial organic matter under different climate scenarios. We will also answer whether disturbances on land that remove plant biomass and change the quality of plant litter will dampen the productivity of freshwater plants and animals. Our approach will be to create 96 artificial ecosystems in a common lake environment and expose sites to different quantities and qualities of organic matter. We will measure the responses of microbial, algal, and grazer communities using cutting-edge technologies such as next-generation DNA sequencing. We will also plant tagged individuals of a sedentary mussel species closely-related to economically important taxa within each site and monitor their long-term growth and survival. The ultimate goal of this work is to develop a spatially-explicit, dynamical watershed-level simulation model. We want to answer the question if X% of habitat is consumed by fire or insect outbreaks, then food stocks for fish will change by Y%. Outcomes of this research will be highly relevant to the UK and international policy around managing freshwater supplies by demonstrating strong linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. For example, the EU has developed legislation to protect freshwater but this ignores the effects of land use practices on lake water quality and biota. The future of extensive forestry plantations and pastures surrounding many socio-economically important watersheds in Britain are also being debated as the EU begins reforming the Common Agricultural Policy. We aim to show that any changes in land use must consider how energy in the form of organic matter is dispersed to aquatic ecosystems and supports their productivity. Finally, this project will have many applications for improving regional land use planning and management, as well as restoring environmentally damaged landscapes. We will work closely with partners in the mining industry and government to inform them of the best practices for re-vegetating degraded watersheds.

Predicting the impact of atmospheric aerosols, through their evolving size and chemical composition, relies on using mechanistic models that attempt to predict the partitioning of potentially millions of such compounds between the gas phase and condensed phase. Uncertainties in the physicochemical properties of pure components and condensed phase mixtures affect our ability to accurately predict and resolve this partitioning. How do we tackle such uncertainties? In 2 ongoing NERC grants, a range of fundamental properties of pure components and mixtures (vapour pressures, viscosities and diffusion constants), are being measured with the objective of improving predictions for atmospheric functionalities. Given the urgency of making such measurements, complementary instruments and expertise exists across the EU and North America that is not available through existing NERC projects. Similarly, the laboratory facilities and expertise enabled by the referenced NERC projects are not accessible to such international programmes. Why is the lack of coherence in methodology and expertise a problem? Recent reviews by the international community highlight significant discrepancies between experimental methods. Despite this, there is no coordinated effort to reconcile these differences or to start compiling appropriate data, with appropriate screening, to improve the predictive techniques essential for improving atmospheric aerosol models. Current compiled data are extremely sparse. On top of this, there are no recommended standards to establish accepted criteria for future measurements or an agreed set of modelling tools to determine how accurate the data has to be to predict evolving aerosol properties. Ultimately, we do not know what level of accuracy in properties might be attainable and acceptable. This is a unique opportunity to address these issues internationally whilst directly benefiting existing and future NERC driven programmes. This IOF will catalyse exploitation of data from ongoing NERC grants, consolidating it into new databases built with measurements and expertise from partner organisation, adding value by expanding flexibility and accuracy of predictive techniques. We have identified 3 ongoing and 2 completed NERC grants as detailed in the case for support. Each partner will provide access to their existing measurement and modelling programmes, involvement in evaluation committee meetings, writing publications, hosting researchers to take part in intercomparisons (see letters of support) and supporting engagement with the wider community once the network matures. Whilst we identify activities to take place over a 2-year period, it is crucial to ensure project sustainability. As such, we will not only create new databanks and an agreed set of open source community modelling facilities, but an agreed set of standards for accepting future measurements will be established. We will engage with the global community through open workshops and meetings. The network comprises researchers from: The University of Manchester [lead], University of Bristol [UK-CoI], ETH [Switzerland], Aarhus University [Denmark], Stockholm University [Sweden], Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory [US], Pacific Northwest National Lab [US] and University of British Columbia [Canada].

The repeated formation, advance, retreat and disappearance of ice-sheets is the defining characteristic of the glacial cycles of the last million years. At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21,000 years ago, the extensive Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets had a major influence on global and regional climate, and global-mean sea-level was 120 m lower than present, mainly due to the much greater mass of water stored in ice on land. Ice-sheets and climate interact strongly. Ice-sheets are very sensitive to climate change through its effect on snowfall and melting. They feed back on regional and global climate change through several mechanisms; for instance, sunlight is reflected by the snow and ice, surface temperature is cooled by raised elevation, and meltwater running off the ice-sheet into the sea may influence ocean circulation. The enormous and complex changes in climate and ice-sheets which take place during glacial cycles are not understood in several important respects or in detail. Explaining them is an exciting intellectual challenge of Earth system science. The effect of anthropogenic climate change on the ice-sheets of Greenland and Antarctica could produce changes in global-mean sea-level of many metres over future centuries, with severe impacts on coastal populations and ecosystems. On the longer term, if climate change were reversed, the ice-sheets might regrow. Contemporary observations alone give us insufficient knowledge of the relevant processes to make reliable predictions, because changes during the relatively well-observed last century have been relatively small. Therefore the record of the larger natural variations that occur during glacial cycles is a crucial source of information about how ice-sheets may respond to and influence climate change in the future. The aim of this project is to investigate the co-evolution of the climate and the Northern Hemisphere ice-sheets during the last glacial cycle. For the first time we will do this using the type of climate model used for detailed future climate projections, coupled to a detailed ice-sheet model. The focus is on analysis of changes simulated by these computer models, which we compare with observational data. The intended outcomes will be (i) simulations of the last glacial cycle with a much more physically complete model than has been used before, including a quantification of the effect of model systematic uncertainty on the results; (ii) a consequent improvement in scientific understanding of ice-sheet change and its interaction with climate on timescales of centuries to millennia; (iii) an improved capability for modelling ice-sheet changes that will result from anthropogenic climate change. This has obvious practical socio-economic relevance, since we want to be able to make predictions for the future.

Recent satellite measurements of the Earth's polar ice sheets highlight that changes in ice extent and thickness are occurring at rates far higher than expected. The challenge for researchers is to place these observations into a longer-term context and produce computer models ('ice sheet forecasts') that reliably predict the fate of ice sheets over this century and beyond. Although remote from habitation, the polar ice sheets influence global sea level. Retreat by increased melting and iceberg calving produces higher sea levels and concerns exist that sea level may rise by metres displacing many millions of people, and their livelihoods, from their coastal homes. At this point in time, it is not possible to study the full life cycle of the present Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets as they are still evolving and undergoing large-scale changes. Instead, we will use an ice sheet that has now fully retreated; the ice sheet that covered most of Britain, Ireland and the North Sea during the last ice age. The last British-Irish ice sheet covered up to 1,000,000 km2 at its maximum size, around 25,000 yrs ago, and was relatively small by global standards. However, its character, setting and behaviour have striking parallels with both the modern West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. Large parts of the British-Irish Ice Sheet were marine-influenced just like in west Antarctica today; and numerous fast-flowing ice streams carried much of its mass, just like in the Greenland Ice Sheet today. All three are or were highly dynamic, in climatically sensitive regions, with marine sectors, ocean-terminating margins and land-based glaciers. All these common factors make the British-Irish Ice Sheet a powerful analogue for understanding ice sheet dynamics on a range of timescales, operating now and in the future. Recent work by members of this consortium has revealed the pattern of ice sheet retreat that once covered the British Isles, as recorded by end moraines and other glacial landforms. Other work by members of this consortium has used sophisticated computer models to simulate the ice sheet's response to climate change at the end of the last Ice Age. However, these models can only be as good as the geological data on which they are based, and the pattern is poorly constrained in time. We need to know more about the style, rate and timing of ice sheet decay in response to past climate change. Such knowledge allows us to further refine computer modelling so that better predictions can be made. The main focus of the project therefore, is to collect sediments and rocks deposited by the last ice sheet that covered the British Isles, and use these, along with organic remains, to date (e.g. by radiocarbon analyses) the retreat of the ice sheet margins. The project will use over 200 carefully chosen sites, dating some 800 samples in order to achieve this. Offshore, samples will be extracted using coring devices lowered from a research ship to the seabed, and onshore by manual sampling and by use of small drilling rigs. Once the samples are dated and added to the pattern information provided by the landforms, maps of the shrinking ice sheet will be produced. These will provide crucial information on the timing and rates of change across the whole ice sheet. The British-Irish Ice Sheet will become the best constrained anywhere in the world and be the benchmark against which ice sheet models are improved and tested in the future. Knowledge on the character and age of the seafloor sediments surrounding the British Isles is also useful for many industrial, archaeological and heritage applications. Accordingly, the project is closely linked to partners interested for example in locating offshore windfarms, electricity cables between Britain and Ireland, and heritage bodies aiming to preserve offshore archaeological remains.

During 18-19 September, Category 5 Hurricane Maria devastated the small island developing state of Dominica. Sustained winds of 257 Km/h almost completely stripped the island of its forest cover and caused much destruction of buildings and infrastructure. Intense rainfall and uprooting of trees caused numerous landslides, debris flows and river floods. Debris carried by the floods jammed under bridges, exacerbating overbank flooding and damage to infrastructure. Coarse sediment and tree debris discharged to the sea were transported back onto the coastline by the storm surge, damaging shoreline infrastructure. The impact of Hurricane Maria upon the landscape of Dominica and the consequences for disaster risk reduction in Dominica are the focus of this research. This work is urgent because it must be completed before the landscape is further modified by intense rainfall events in the next hurricane season (June-November 2018). To understand how this either decreases or increases geomorphological hazards, as much survey work as possible needs to be done during the debris clearance phase of the recovery operations. We therefore aim to produce a detailed post-event survey, combining remote sensing and fieldwork, of the geomorphological changes caused by Hurricane Maria and an understanding of their effects on post-hurricane landscape instability, focusing on the damage done to critical infrastructure by flooding, debris flows and storm surge erosion. There are three phases to the project: 1) processing of satellite imagery (both optical and radar), evaluating the effectiveness of remote sensing for damage mapping; 2) Fieldwork and verification survey of slope instability features and damaged infrastructure; 3) Analysis of stakeholder perceptions of vulnerability and resilience, with collation of survey results into an assessment of future geohazards, with recommendations on improved disaster risk reduction and enhanced resilience. The project will have many applications: (i) providing a valuable baseline inventory of hurricane impacts in Dominica's landscape and the ensuing damage to infrastructure; (ii) enabling an accuracy assessment of the hurricane damage maps produced from inspection of satellite remote sensing imagery during the disaster response phase; (iii) enabling an examination of the interaction between hurricane-driven geomorphic processes and ensuing damage to critical infrastructure; (iv) improving our understanding of post-hurricane landscape instability and the DRR implications for reconstruction in Dominica.