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  • L Actualité économique

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    Authors: Jean-Yves Duclos; Martin Tabi;

    L’utilité des courbes de Lorenz pour l’analyse de la répartition des revenus est bien connue depuis l’article influent d’Atkinson (1970). Nous indiquons dans le présent article comment l’usage combiné de ces courbes de Lorenz et des courbes de concentration des revenus, des impôts ou des transferts permet de résumer facilement et intuitivement l’impact de l’État sur la distribution des revenus. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement à la redistribution des revenus ainsi qu’à l’équité verticale et l’iniquité horizontale exercées par l’impôt direct et les politiques de transferts. En appliquant des poids « éthiques » à la distance entre les courbes de Lorenz et de concentration, l’on obtient des indices synthétiques d’inégalité, de redistribution et d’équité qui peuvent être facilement décomposés en contributions individuelles des différents types d’impôts et de transferts. Ces indices représentent une généralisation et une extension de l’indice d’inégalité bien connu de Gini. Cette approche est illustrée à l’aide de la distribution et de la redistribution des revenus au Canada au cours de la dernière décennie. On confirme le résultat bien connu que l’inégalité des revenus bruts s’est accrue de 1981 à 1990 alors qu’elle a chuté pour le revenu net. La redistribution opérée par le système fiscal s’est considérablement accrue au cours de cette décennie, au prix entre autres choses d’une plus grande iniquité horizontale. Le groupe de transferts reliés à la retraite et à la vieillesse est celui qui exerce de loin le plus d’impact sur la redistribution des revenus. L’impact redistributif de l’impôt direct est quant à lui très sensible au paramètre de subjectivité éthique utilisé. The usefulness of Lorenz curves for analysing the distribution of income is well understood since the influential article of Atkinson (1970). We show in this paper how combining Lorenz and concentration curves for incomes, taxes and transfers allows one to summarise easily and intuitively the impact of government on the distribution of income. We more particularly look at income redistribution and at the vertical and horizontal equity exerted by direct taxes and transfers. By applying "ethical weights" to the distance between the Lorenz and the concentration curves, we obtain summary indices of inequality, redistribution and equity that are easily decomposed additively into separate tax and benefit components. These indices are a generalisation of the well-known Gini index of inequality. The approach is illustrated using micro data on the distribution and the redistribution of income in Canada in the last decade. It confirms the well-known result that the inequality of gross income increased between 1981 and 1990, whereas the inequality of net income fell during the same period. The redistribution exerted by the tax and transfer system increased considerably during that period, at the cost of a higher level of horizontal inequity. Income redistribution is largely generated by the group of transfers related to retirement and old age. As for the redistributive impact of direct taxes, it is quite sensitive to the value of the ethical parameter used in computing the summary indices of equity and redistribution.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2020
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
      L Actualité économique
      Article . 2020
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    Authors: Darmon, René; Khoury, Nabil T.; Martel, Jean-Marc;

    L’objet de cet article est d’identifier les principaux facteurs que les gestionnaires professionnels de portefeuilles au Québec prennent en considération pour appréhender le risque de leur placement en actions ordinaires. The purpose of this paper is to identify the main factors professional fund managers in Québec take into consideration when assessing the riskiness of their investment in common stocks.

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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique
      Article . 2009
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    Authors: Lanoie, Paul;
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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 1999
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 1999
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    Authors: Claude Fluet; Roberto Galbiati;

    Nous discutons de quelques développements récents en économie expérimentale sur la relation entre la loi et les normes sociales dans la détermination des comportements. Dans l’approche traditionnelle de l’analyse économique du droit, l’effectivité des lois repose uniquement sur le système répressif mis en oeuvre pour les faire respecter. De nombreuses expériences de laboratoires montrent cependant que les obligations légales influencent aussi les comportements par un effet sur les anticipations, ce qui permet la coordination sur de « bons équilibres » par le jeu des préférences sociales, ainsi que par un effet direct sur les préférences elles-mêmes. Ces résultats ont des conséquences importantes pour l’analyse économique des politiques légales et réglementaires. This paper discusses recent papers in experimental law and economics studying the relation between laws and social norms. Traditionally the law and economics analysis of legal compliance focuses on the effectiveness of the legal system in law enforcement. However, recent lab-experiments have shown that obligations might affect behaviors by influencing expectations about others’ choices, thus allowing the emergence of virtuous equilibria in games where social preferences matter. Moreover, obligations might directly affect preferences. These results have implications for the analyses of legal rules and regulation.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2017
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    Authors: Dufour, Jean-Marie;

    The main purpose of the paper is to illustrate the use of a dummy variable interpretation of the predictive Chow test against structural change. After describing how the predictive Chow test against structural change in linear regression models can be viewed as a test on the coefficients of a set of dummy variables, it is shown that these can provide useful additional information on the importance and timing of structural changes. Then, the approach is illustrated by applying it to a version of the St. Louis equation (in rate-of-change form) estimated over the period 1953/I-1976/IV: we detect some instability in the 1970's but find it is rather localized, being linked mainly to two quarters (1973/IV and 1975/III).

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
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    Authors: Boucher, Michel;

    Cette recherche décrit et analyse les mécanismes de répartition des joueurs entre les équipes de la LNH. Ces mécanismes sont l’existence de la clause de réserve avec ou sans compensation, le repêchage universel des joueurs amateurs, le repêchage intra-ligue et le ballottage (waiver). Après avoir démontré empiriquement que l’égalité compétitive entre les équipes ne peut être utilisée pour justifier ces pratiques non concurrentielles, cette étude essaie de prouver que les mécanismes actuels d’allocation des joueurs découlent principalement du statut monopsonique de la LNH, cette dernière étant le seul employeur des joueurs de calibre supérieur.L’argumentation employée consiste à démontrer qu’un marché libre allouerait les joueurs de hockey selon leur contribution marginale aux revenus de l’équipe, qu’il serait plus efficace et que les joueurs recevraient leur rente de talent naturel. Dans le système actuel, l’allocation des joueurs entre les équipes s’inspire de leur contribution marginale aux revenus de l’équipe puisque les droits de propriété sont clairement définis. Elle s’accompagne toutefois de nombreux coûts sociaux qui découlent de la dissociation de la rémunération du joueur de son coût d’option (opportunity cost). À ces coûts d’inefficacité s’ajoute aussi le fait que le joueur de hockey doit partager présentement sa rente avec le propriétaire de l’équipe. This paper describes and analyzes how players are distributed among theNHL teams. These allocative rules are the option or reserve clause with or withoutcompensation, the universal draft of amateur players, the intra-league annualdraft and the waivers. After having empirically shown that the competitive equality argument among teams cannot be used as a basis for such noncompetitive practices, this paper tries to show that these unusual allocative procedures originate from the monopsony power of the NHL, as the only buyer of high ability players.The paper argues that a free players' market would distribute players on thebasis of their marginal revenue product to their respective teams, that it would bemore efficient and that players would get their full value, i.e. their natural abilityrent. In the actual system, the distribution of players among teams is made on thebasis of their marginal contribution to the team's revenues, inasmuch as propertyrights are properly defined. However this allocation involves several deadweightlosses originating from the fact that a player's salary differs from his real opportunity cost. Finally a hockey player must share actually his natural rent with the team's owner.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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    Authors: Lanoie, Paul;
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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 1997
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      L Actualité économique
      Article . 1997
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    Authors: Dionne, Georges;

    Les essais que nous publions dans ce recueil reflètent plusieurs thèmes de la recherche actuelle sur l’économie de l’incertain et de l’information. Certes, ils ne contiennent pas tous les sujets étudiés mais donnent une bonne vue d’ensemble des développements prodigieux (mais parfois décevants) des connaissances dans ce domaine. La présentation des essais que nous proposons dans ce texte est divisée en cinq sections correspondant à des regroupements plus ou moins étanches des principales étapes qui ont été franchies depuis le Colloque de Paris. Deux aspects ont été mis en valeur : bien situer chaque contribution dans la littérature et dégager l’aspect innovateur qui la caractérise. Des extensions sont également discutées. Ce recueil d’essais est destiné, entre autres, à fournir un complément de lecture aux manuels et recueils d’articles couramment utilisés dans des cours spécialisés de maîtrise et de doctorat. The essays published in this collection reflect many issues of the actual research on the economics of uncertainty and information. Although they do not cover all the topics, they are related to the main developments since the first important meeting on the subject (Paris, 1952). Two aspects are privileged in the presentation of the essays: to place them carefully in the literature and to characterize their contribution. Extensions are also discussed. One purpose of the publication is to provide reading material to graduate students.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
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    Authors: Jean-Marie Dufour; Abdeljelil Farhat; Lynda Khalaf;

    Cet article illustre l’applicabilité des méthodes de rééchantillonnage dans le cadre des tests multiples (simultanés), pour divers problèmes économétriques. Les hypothèses simultanées sont une conséquence habituelle de la théorie économique, de sorte que le contrôle de la probabilité de rejet de combinaisons de tests est un problème que l’on rencontre fréquemment dans divers contextes économétriques et statistiques. À ce sujet, on sait que le fait d’ignorer le caractère conjoint des hypothèses multiples peut faire en sorte que le niveau de la procédure globale dépasse considérablement le niveau désiré. Alors que la plupart des méthodes d’inférence multiple sont conservatrices en présence de statistiques non indépendantes, les tests que nous proposons visent à contrôler exactement le niveau de signification. Pour ce faire, nous considérons des critères de test combinés proposés initialement pour des statistiques indépendantes. En appliquant la méthode des tests de Monte-Carlo, nous montrons comment ces méthodes de combinaison de tests peuvent s’appliquer à de tels cas, sans recours à des approximations asymptotiques. Après avoir passé en revue les résultats antérieurs sur ce sujet, nous montrons comment une telle méthodologie peut être utilisée pour construire des tests de normalité basés sur plusieurs moments pour les erreurs de modèles de régression linéaires. Pour ce problème, nous proposons une généralisation valide à distance fi nie du test asymptotique proposé par Kiefer et Salmon (1983) ainsi que des tests combinés suivant les méthodes de Tippett et de Pearson-Fisher. Nous observons empiriquement que les procédures de test corrigées par la méthode des tests de Monte-Carlo ne souffrent pas du problème de biais (ou sous-rejet) souvent rapporté dans cette littérature – notamment contre les lois platikurtiques – et permettent des gains sensibles de puissance par rapport aux méthodes combinées usuelles. This paper illustrates the usefulness of resampling-based methods in the context of multiple (simultaneous) tests, with emphasis on econometric applications. Economic theory often suggests joint (or simultaneous) hypotheses on econometric models; consequently, the problem of evaluating joint rejection probabilities arises frequently in econometrics and statistics. In this regard, it is well known that ignoring the joint nature of multiple hypotheses may lead to serious test size distortions. Whereas most available multiple test techniques are conservative in the presence of non-independent statistics, our proposed tests provably achieve size control. Specifi cally, we use the Monte-Carlo (MC) test technique to extend several well known combination methods to the non-independent statistics contexts. We fi rst cast the multiple test problem into a unifi ed statistical framework which: (i) serves to show how exact global size control is achieved through the MC test method, and (ii) yields a number of superior tests previously not considered. Secondly, we provide a review of relevant available results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our proposed procedure to the problem of moments-based normality tests. For this problem, we propose an exact variant of Kiefer and Salmon’s (1983) test, and an alternative combination method which exploits the well known Fisher-Pearson procedure. Our simulation study reveals that the latter method seems to correct for the problem of test biases against platikurtic alternatives. In general, our results show that concrete and non-spurious power gains (over standard combination methods) can be achieved through our multiple Monte-Carlo test approach.

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    Érudit
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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2005
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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2020
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      L Actualité économique
      Article . 2005
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      L Actualité économique
      Article . 2020
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    Authors: Ambler, Steve;

    Le but de ce texte est de présenter une introduction non technique à l’utilisation et à l’importance de séries chronologiques non stationnaires en économétrie et en macroéconomique. Les sujets suivants font l’objet de la présentation : la distinction entre tendances stochastiques et tendances déterministes; les tests d’hypothèse pour discriminer entre séries non stationnaires avec tendances stochastiques, d’une part, et, d’autre part, séries qui sont stationnaires autour de tendances déterministes; les conséquences de la non-stationnarité pour la théorie macroéconomique; les tests de stationnarité en présence de changements structurels; l’estimation de modèles économétriques avec variables qui sont individuellement non stationnaires. The paper gives a non-technical introduction to non-stationary time series and considers their importance in macro-econometrics and macroeconomics. The following topics are discussed: the distinction between stochastic and deterministic trends; statistical tests for discriminating between non-stationary series with stochastic trends and series which are stationary or which are stationnary around a deterministic time trend; the importance of unit roots for macroeconomic theory; structural breaks and tests for stochastic trends; the estimation of time series models with non-stationary variables; the existence of stable relationships among variables which are individually non-stationary.

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67 Research products
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    Authors: Jean-Yves Duclos; Martin Tabi;

    L’utilité des courbes de Lorenz pour l’analyse de la répartition des revenus est bien connue depuis l’article influent d’Atkinson (1970). Nous indiquons dans le présent article comment l’usage combiné de ces courbes de Lorenz et des courbes de concentration des revenus, des impôts ou des transferts permet de résumer facilement et intuitivement l’impact de l’État sur la distribution des revenus. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement à la redistribution des revenus ainsi qu’à l’équité verticale et l’iniquité horizontale exercées par l’impôt direct et les politiques de transferts. En appliquant des poids « éthiques » à la distance entre les courbes de Lorenz et de concentration, l’on obtient des indices synthétiques d’inégalité, de redistribution et d’équité qui peuvent être facilement décomposés en contributions individuelles des différents types d’impôts et de transferts. Ces indices représentent une généralisation et une extension de l’indice d’inégalité bien connu de Gini. Cette approche est illustrée à l’aide de la distribution et de la redistribution des revenus au Canada au cours de la dernière décennie. On confirme le résultat bien connu que l’inégalité des revenus bruts s’est accrue de 1981 à 1990 alors qu’elle a chuté pour le revenu net. La redistribution opérée par le système fiscal s’est considérablement accrue au cours de cette décennie, au prix entre autres choses d’une plus grande iniquité horizontale. Le groupe de transferts reliés à la retraite et à la vieillesse est celui qui exerce de loin le plus d’impact sur la redistribution des revenus. L’impact redistributif de l’impôt direct est quant à lui très sensible au paramètre de subjectivité éthique utilisé. The usefulness of Lorenz curves for analysing the distribution of income is well understood since the influential article of Atkinson (1970). We show in this paper how combining Lorenz and concentration curves for incomes, taxes and transfers allows one to summarise easily and intuitively the impact of government on the distribution of income. We more particularly look at income redistribution and at the vertical and horizontal equity exerted by direct taxes and transfers. By applying "ethical weights" to the distance between the Lorenz and the concentration curves, we obtain summary indices of inequality, redistribution and equity that are easily decomposed additively into separate tax and benefit components. These indices are a generalisation of the well-known Gini index of inequality. The approach is illustrated using micro data on the distribution and the redistribution of income in Canada in the last decade. It confirms the well-known result that the inequality of gross income increased between 1981 and 1990, whereas the inequality of net income fell during the same period. The redistribution exerted by the tax and transfer system increased considerably during that period, at the cost of a higher level of horizontal inequity. Income redistribution is largely generated by the group of transfers related to retirement and old age. As for the redistributive impact of direct taxes, it is quite sensitive to the value of the ethical parameter used in computing the summary indices of equity and redistribution.

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    L Actualité économique
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
      L Actualité économique
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    Authors: Darmon, René; Khoury, Nabil T.; Martel, Jean-Marc;

    L’objet de cet article est d’identifier les principaux facteurs que les gestionnaires professionnels de portefeuilles au Québec prennent en considération pour appréhender le risque de leur placement en actions ordinaires. The purpose of this paper is to identify the main factors professional fund managers in Québec take into consideration when assessing the riskiness of their investment in common stocks.

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    Authors: Lanoie, Paul;
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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 1999
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 1999
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    Authors: Claude Fluet; Roberto Galbiati;

    Nous discutons de quelques développements récents en économie expérimentale sur la relation entre la loi et les normes sociales dans la détermination des comportements. Dans l’approche traditionnelle de l’analyse économique du droit, l’effectivité des lois repose uniquement sur le système répressif mis en oeuvre pour les faire respecter. De nombreuses expériences de laboratoires montrent cependant que les obligations légales influencent aussi les comportements par un effet sur les anticipations, ce qui permet la coordination sur de « bons équilibres » par le jeu des préférences sociales, ainsi que par un effet direct sur les préférences elles-mêmes. Ces résultats ont des conséquences importantes pour l’analyse économique des politiques légales et réglementaires. This paper discusses recent papers in experimental law and economics studying the relation between laws and social norms. Traditionally the law and economics analysis of legal compliance focuses on the effectiveness of the legal system in law enforcement. However, recent lab-experiments have shown that obligations might affect behaviors by influencing expectations about others’ choices, thus allowing the emergence of virtuous equilibria in games where social preferences matter. Moreover, obligations might directly affect preferences. These results have implications for the analyses of legal rules and regulation.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2017
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    Authors: Dufour, Jean-Marie;

    The main purpose of the paper is to illustrate the use of a dummy variable interpretation of the predictive Chow test against structural change. After describing how the predictive Chow test against structural change in linear regression models can be viewed as a test on the coefficients of a set of dummy variables, it is shown that these can provide useful additional information on the importance and timing of structural changes. Then, the approach is illustrated by applying it to a version of the St. Louis equation (in rate-of-change form) estimated over the period 1953/I-1976/IV: we detect some instability in the 1970's but find it is rather localized, being linked mainly to two quarters (1973/IV and 1975/III).

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
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    Authors: Boucher, Michel;

    Cette recherche décrit et analyse les mécanismes de répartition des joueurs entre les équipes de la LNH. Ces mécanismes sont l’existence de la clause de réserve avec ou sans compensation, le repêchage universel des joueurs amateurs, le repêchage intra-ligue et le ballottage (waiver). Après avoir démontré empiriquement que l’égalité compétitive entre les équipes ne peut être utilisée pour justifier ces pratiques non concurrentielles, cette étude essaie de prouver que les mécanismes actuels d’allocation des joueurs découlent principalement du statut monopsonique de la LNH, cette dernière étant le seul employeur des joueurs de calibre supérieur.L’argumentation employée consiste à démontrer qu’un marché libre allouerait les joueurs de hockey selon leur contribution marginale aux revenus de l’équipe, qu’il serait plus efficace et que les joueurs recevraient leur rente de talent naturel. Dans le système actuel, l’allocation des joueurs entre les équipes s’inspire de leur contribution marginale aux revenus de l’équipe puisque les droits de propriété sont clairement définis. Elle s’accompagne toutefois de nombreux coûts sociaux qui découlent de la dissociation de la rémunération du joueur de son coût d’option (opportunity cost). À ces coûts d’inefficacité s’ajoute aussi le fait que le joueur de hockey doit partager présentement sa rente avec le propriétaire de l’équipe. This paper describes and analyzes how players are distributed among theNHL teams. These allocative rules are the option or reserve clause with or withoutcompensation, the universal draft of amateur players, the intra-league annualdraft and the waivers. After having empirically shown that the competitive equality argument among teams cannot be used as a basis for such noncompetitive practices, this paper tries to show that these unusual allocative procedures originate from the monopsony power of the NHL, as the only buyer of high ability players.The paper argues that a free players' market would distribute players on thebasis of their marginal revenue product to their respective teams, that it would bemore efficient and that players would get their full value, i.e. their natural abilityrent. In the actual system, the distribution of players among teams is made on thebasis of their marginal contribution to the team's revenues, inasmuch as propertyrights are properly defined. However this allocation involves several deadweightlosses originating from the fact that a player's salary differs from his real opportunity cost. Finally a hockey player must share actually his natural rent with the team's owner.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
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    Authors: Lanoie, Paul;
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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 1997
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      Article . 1997
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    Authors: Dionne, Georges;

    Les essais que nous publions dans ce recueil reflètent plusieurs thèmes de la recherche actuelle sur l’économie de l’incertain et de l’information. Certes, ils ne contiennent pas tous les sujets étudiés mais donnent une bonne vue d’ensemble des développements prodigieux (mais parfois décevants) des connaissances dans ce domaine. La présentation des essais que nous proposons dans ce texte est divisée en cinq sections correspondant à des regroupements plus ou moins étanches des principales étapes qui ont été franchies depuis le Colloque de Paris. Deux aspects ont été mis en valeur : bien situer chaque contribution dans la littérature et dégager l’aspect innovateur qui la caractérise. Des extensions sont également discutées. Ce recueil d’essais est destiné, entre autres, à fournir un complément de lecture aux manuels et recueils d’articles couramment utilisés dans des cours spécialisés de maîtrise et de doctorat. The essays published in this collection reflect many issues of the actual research on the economics of uncertainty and information. Although they do not cover all the topics, they are related to the main developments since the first important meeting on the subject (Paris, 1952). Two aspects are privileged in the presentation of the essays: to place them carefully in the literature and to characterize their contribution. Extensions are also discussed. One purpose of the publication is to provide reading material to graduate students.

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    L Actualité économique; Érudit
    Other literature type . Article . 2009
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      L Actualité économique; Érudit
      Other literature type . Article . 2009
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    Authors: Jean-Marie Dufour; Abdeljelil Farhat; Lynda Khalaf;

    Cet article illustre l’applicabilité des méthodes de rééchantillonnage dans le cadre des tests multiples (simultanés), pour divers problèmes économétriques. Les hypothèses simultanées sont une conséquence habituelle de la théorie économique, de sorte que le contrôle de la probabilité de rejet de combinaisons de tests est un problème que l’on rencontre fréquemment dans divers contextes économétriques et statistiques. À ce sujet, on sait que le fait d’ignorer le caractère conjoint des hypothèses multiples peut faire en sorte que le niveau de la procédure globale dépasse considérablement le niveau désiré. Alors que la plupart des méthodes d’inférence multiple sont conservatrices en présence de statistiques non indépendantes, les tests que nous proposons visent à contrôler exactement le niveau de signification. Pour ce faire, nous considérons des critères de test combinés proposés initialement pour des statistiques indépendantes. En appliquant la méthode des tests de Monte-Carlo, nous montrons comment ces méthodes de combinaison de tests peuvent s’appliquer à de tels cas, sans recours à des approximations asymptotiques. Après avoir passé en revue les résultats antérieurs sur ce sujet, nous montrons comment une telle méthodologie peut être utilisée pour construire des tests de normalité basés sur plusieurs moments pour les erreurs de modèles de régression linéaires. Pour ce problème, nous proposons une généralisation valide à distance fi nie du test asymptotique proposé par Kiefer et Salmon (1983) ainsi que des tests combinés suivant les méthodes de Tippett et de Pearson-Fisher. Nous observons empiriquement que les procédures de test corrigées par la méthode des tests de Monte-Carlo ne souffrent pas du problème de biais (ou sous-rejet) souvent rapporté dans cette littérature – notamment contre les lois platikurtiques – et permettent des gains sensibles de puissance par rapport aux méthodes combinées usuelles. This paper illustrates the usefulness of resampling-based methods in the context of multiple (simultaneous) tests, with emphasis on econometric applications. Economic theory often suggests joint (or simultaneous) hypotheses on econometric models; consequently, the problem of evaluating joint rejection probabilities arises frequently in econometrics and statistics. In this regard, it is well known that ignoring the joint nature of multiple hypotheses may lead to serious test size distortions. Whereas most available multiple test techniques are conservative in the presence of non-independent statistics, our proposed tests provably achieve size control. Specifi cally, we use the Monte-Carlo (MC) test technique to extend several well known combination methods to the non-independent statistics contexts. We fi rst cast the multiple test problem into a unifi ed statistical framework which: (i) serves to show how exact global size control is achieved through the MC test method, and (ii) yields a number of superior tests previously not considered. Secondly, we provide a review of relevant available results. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of our proposed procedure to the problem of moments-based normality tests. For this problem, we propose an exact variant of Kiefer and Salmon’s (1983) test, and an alternative combination method which exploits the well known Fisher-Pearson procedure. Our simulation study reveals that the latter method seems to correct for the problem of test biases against platikurtic alternatives. In general, our results show that concrete and non-spurious power gains (over standard combination methods) can be achieved through our multiple Monte-Carlo test approach.

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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2005
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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2020
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      Article . 2005
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      Article . 2020
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    Authors: Ambler, Steve;

    Le but de ce texte est de présenter une introduction non technique à l’utilisation et à l’importance de séries chronologiques non stationnaires en économétrie et en macroéconomique. Les sujets suivants font l’objet de la présentation : la distinction entre tendances stochastiques et tendances déterministes; les tests d’hypothèse pour discriminer entre séries non stationnaires avec tendances stochastiques, d’une part, et, d’autre part, séries qui sont stationnaires autour de tendances déterministes; les conséquences de la non-stationnarité pour la théorie macroéconomique; les tests de stationnarité en présence de changements structurels; l’estimation de modèles économétriques avec variables qui sont individuellement non stationnaires. The paper gives a non-technical introduction to non-stationary time series and considers their importance in macro-econometrics and macroeconomics. The following topics are discussed: the distinction between stochastic and deterministic trends; statistical tests for discriminating between non-stationary series with stochastic trends and series which are stationary or which are stationnary around a deterministic time trend; the importance of unit roots for macroeconomic theory; structural breaks and tests for stochastic trends; the estimation of time series models with non-stationary variables; the existence of stable relationships among variables which are individually non-stationary.

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    L Actualité économique
    Article . 2009
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