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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: James M. Nason; Gregor W. Smith;

    AbstractPhillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher‐order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the NKPC identification problem in the canonical three‐equation, new Keynesian model. We revisit the empirical evidence for the USA, the UK, and Canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the Anderson and Rubin (1949) statistic, which is robust to weak identification. We also apply the Guggenberger and Smith (2008) LM test to the underlying NKPC pricing parameters. Both tests yield little evidence of forward‐looking inflation dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Journal of Applied Econometrics
    Article . 2008
    License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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    SSRN Electronic Journal
    Article . 2005
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Journal of Applied Econometrics
      Article . 2008
      License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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      SSRN Electronic Journal
      Article . 2005
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Ruge-Murcia, Francisco;

    SummaryThis paper uses extreme value theory to study the implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a production economy. Productivity and inflation innovations are drawn from generalized extreme value distributions. The model is solved using a third‐order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that the data reject the hypothesis that innovations are drawn from normal distributions and favor instead the alternative that they are drawn from asymmetric distributions. Estimates indicate that skewness risk accounts for 12% of the risk premia and reduces bond yields by approximately 55 basis points. For a bond that pays 1 dollar at maturity, the adjustment factor associated with skewness risk ranges from 0.15 cents for a 3‐month bond to 2.05 cents for a 5‐year bond. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Journal of Applied Econometrics
    Article . 2016
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      Journal of Applied Econometrics
      Article . 2016
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Sumeet Gulati; James Vercammen;

    In this paper, we present the economic determinants of the optimal length of a carbon offset contract. We find that because of a declining capacity of the soil to sequester carbon, the optimal length of the carbon contract is finite (the marginal benefit of remaining in the contract is declining over time, whereas marginal opportunity cost is rising). We also explore the effect of varying key parameter values on the optimal length in the contract. If the contract requires the farmer to sequester at a higher rate, the farmer chooses the contract for a shorter length of time, and this may decrease rather than increase social welfare. If society places a higher value on carbon accumulation, the contract is chosen for a longer length of time. Finally, if both the farmer and society have a higher discount rate, the model provides a somewhat surprising result. The overall time in the contract, and benefits from carbon accumulation are higher when the common discount rate is higher. Dans le present article, nous presentons les determinants economiques de la duree optimale d'un contrat de contrepartie de la fixation du carbone. Nous avons trouve qu'en raison de la diminution de la capacite du sol a sequestrer le CO2, la duree optimale du contrat de contrepartie du carbone est limitee (l'avantage marginal de la poursuite du contrat diminue avec le temps, tandis que le cout de renonciation marginal augmente). Nous avons egalement examine les repercussions de la variation des valeurs des parametres cles sur la duree optimale du contrat. Si le contrat exige que le producteur augmente le taux de sequestration du CO2, le producteur peut choisir de diminuer la duree du contrat, ce qui peut contribuer a diminuer le bien-etre collectif plutot qu'a l'augmenter. Si la societe accorde une grande valeur a l'accumulation du carbone, la duree du contrat est plus longue. Finalement, si le producteur et la societe disposent d'un taux d'escompte eleve, le modele donne des resultats quelque peu etonnants. La duree totale du contrat et les avantages lies a l'accumulation de carbone sont plus eleves lorsque le taux d'escompte courant est eleve.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Canadian Journal of ...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie
    Article . 2005
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Canadian Journal of ...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie
      Article . 2005
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Douglas J. Hodgson; Oliver Linton; Keith Vorkink;

    We apply semiparametric efficient estimation procedures for a seemingly unrelated regression model where the multivariate error density is elliptically symmetric to study the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. We consider both cointegrating regressions and standard stationary regressions. The elliptical symmetry assumption allows us to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem that typically arises in multivariate semiparametric estimation procedures, because the multivariate elliptically symmetric density function can be written as a function of a scalar transformation of the observed multivariate data. We test the unbiasedness hypothesis on both weekly and daily exchange rate data and strongly reject unbiasedness at the weekly horizon, but fail to reject the unbiasedness hypothesis on the daily data. Estimates of the semiparametric procedure in some cases differ substantially from traditional OLS estimates.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
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    Journal of Applied Economics
    Article . 2004
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Journal of Applied E...arrow_drop_down
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      Journal of Applied Economics
      Article . 2004
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  • Authors: David M. Arseneau; Sanjay K. Chugh; André Kurmann;

    This paper clarifies the role of initial asset value constraints in Ramsey models of incomplete factor taxation. We show that the optimal long-run capital tax is zero in the long run if and only if there is no binding constraint on the initial capital tax rate. This finding contrasts with Armenter (2008) who argues that zero long-run capital taxes reappear in models of incomplete factor taxation as long as the government is barred from manipulating initial asset wealth. The reason for this difference is that the two constraints cannot both be binding at the same time. Hence, in Armenter’s (2008) analysis, the initial asset value constraint is necessarily more restrictive than the constraint on the initial capital tax rate.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Frank T Denton; Byron G Spencer;

    The standard period life table is based entirely on the death probabilities of the given period. Popular (not expert) usage of life expectancies from a period table typically ignores the fact that the expectancies make no allowance for future declines in mortality rates. But the historical record provides overwhelming evidence to suggest that declines will continue, and the period expectancies can therefore be misleading, in a practical context. We propose a "dynamic" extension of the period table that draws out the implications, for survivorship and life expectancy, of observed rates of change of death probabilities.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Demographic Researcharrow_drop_down
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    Demographic Research
    Article . 2011
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    Demographic Research
    Article . 2011
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    Demographic Research
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    Article . 2011
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      Demographic Research
      Article . 2011
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  • Authors: Lawrence Schembri;
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    Authors: Jean-Yves Duclos; Abdelkrim Araar; John Giles;

    The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, it proposes a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, it provides corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty. Third, it applies these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in China using a rich panel data set that extends over 17 years. Alternative measurement techniques are found to yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty. The precision of the estimates is also considerably enhanced by simple statistical corrections. This research was partly funded by Canada's SSHRC, by Québec's FQRSC and by the National Science Foundation (SES-0214702). It was also carried out with support from the Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network, which is financed by the Government of Canada through the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), and by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). 12 páginas, 6 figuras, 4 tablas.-- El pdf del artículo es el documento de trabajo.

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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Journal of Development Economics
    Article . 2010
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      Journal of Development Economics
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  • Authors: Matthew Gentzkow; Nathan Petek; Jesse M. Shapiro; Michael Sinkinson;

    Using data from 1869 to 1928, we estimate the effect of party control of state governments on the entry, exit, circulation, prices, number of pages, and content of Republican and Democratic daily newspapers. We exploit changes over time in party control of the governorship and state legislatures in a differences-in-differences design. We exploit close gubernatorial elections and state legislatures with small majorities in a parallel regression-discontinuity design. Neither method reveals evidence that the party in power affects the partisan composition of the press. Our confidence intervals rule out modest effects, and we find little evidence of incumbent party influence even in times and places with high political stakes or low commercial stakes. The one exception is the Reconstruction South, an episode that we discuss in detail.

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  • Authors: Bazhanov, Andrei; Hartwick, John;

    Beckmann's interaction model has each resident touching base in face-to-face activity with every other resident at the other's residence per unit time. We re-work his resulting ''interaction city'' with each resident ''operating with'' a Cobb-Douglas utility function. Similar but somewhat ''richer'' outcomes occur. We also investigate a new case with intermediate dispersion of face-to-face activity, one with scale economies in trip-making.

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    Authors: James M. Nason; Gregor W. Smith;

    AbstractPhillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher‐order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the NKPC identification problem in the canonical three‐equation, new Keynesian model. We revisit the empirical evidence for the USA, the UK, and Canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the Anderson and Rubin (1949) statistic, which is robust to weak identification. We also apply the Guggenberger and Smith (2008) LM test to the underlying NKPC pricing parameters. Both tests yield little evidence of forward‐looking inflation dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Journal of Applied Econometrics
    Article . 2008
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      Journal of Applied Econometrics
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    Authors: Ruge-Murcia, Francisco;

    SummaryThis paper uses extreme value theory to study the implications of skewness risk for nominal loan contracts in a production economy. Productivity and inflation innovations are drawn from generalized extreme value distributions. The model is solved using a third‐order perturbation and estimated by the simulated method of moments. Results show that the data reject the hypothesis that innovations are drawn from normal distributions and favor instead the alternative that they are drawn from asymmetric distributions. Estimates indicate that skewness risk accounts for 12% of the risk premia and reduces bond yields by approximately 55 basis points. For a bond that pays 1 dollar at maturity, the adjustment factor associated with skewness risk ranges from 0.15 cents for a 3‐month bond to 2.05 cents for a 5‐year bond. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Journal of Applied Econometrics
    Article . 2016
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      Journal of Applied Econometrics
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    Authors: Sumeet Gulati; James Vercammen;

    In this paper, we present the economic determinants of the optimal length of a carbon offset contract. We find that because of a declining capacity of the soil to sequester carbon, the optimal length of the carbon contract is finite (the marginal benefit of remaining in the contract is declining over time, whereas marginal opportunity cost is rising). We also explore the effect of varying key parameter values on the optimal length in the contract. If the contract requires the farmer to sequester at a higher rate, the farmer chooses the contract for a shorter length of time, and this may decrease rather than increase social welfare. If society places a higher value on carbon accumulation, the contract is chosen for a longer length of time. Finally, if both the farmer and society have a higher discount rate, the model provides a somewhat surprising result. The overall time in the contract, and benefits from carbon accumulation are higher when the common discount rate is higher. Dans le present article, nous presentons les determinants economiques de la duree optimale d'un contrat de contrepartie de la fixation du carbone. Nous avons trouve qu'en raison de la diminution de la capacite du sol a sequestrer le CO2, la duree optimale du contrat de contrepartie du carbone est limitee (l'avantage marginal de la poursuite du contrat diminue avec le temps, tandis que le cout de renonciation marginal augmente). Nous avons egalement examine les repercussions de la variation des valeurs des parametres cles sur la duree optimale du contrat. Si le contrat exige que le producteur augmente le taux de sequestration du CO2, le producteur peut choisir de diminuer la duree du contrat, ce qui peut contribuer a diminuer le bien-etre collectif plutot qu'a l'augmenter. Si la societe accorde une grande valeur a l'accumulation du carbone, la duree du contrat est plus longue. Finalement, si le producteur et la societe disposent d'un taux d'escompte eleve, le modele donne des resultats quelque peu etonnants. La duree totale du contrat et les avantages lies a l'accumulation de carbone sont plus eleves lorsque le taux d'escompte courant est eleve.

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    Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie
    Article . 2005
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      Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d agroeconomie
      Article . 2005
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    Authors: Douglas J. Hodgson; Oliver Linton; Keith Vorkink;

    We apply semiparametric efficient estimation procedures for a seemingly unrelated regression model where the multivariate error density is elliptically symmetric to study the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. We consider both cointegrating regressions and standard stationary regressions. The elliptical symmetry assumption allows us to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem that typically arises in multivariate semiparametric estimation procedures, because the multivariate elliptically symmetric density function can be written as a function of a scalar transformation of the observed multivariate data. We test the unbiasedness hypothesis on both weekly and daily exchange rate data and strongly reject unbiasedness at the weekly horizon, but fail to reject the unbiasedness hypothesis on the daily data. Estimates of the semiparametric procedure in some cases differ substantially from traditional OLS estimates.

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    Journal of Applied Economics
    Article . 2004
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  • Authors: David M. Arseneau; Sanjay K. Chugh; André Kurmann;

    This paper clarifies the role of initial asset value constraints in Ramsey models of incomplete factor taxation. We show that the optimal long-run capital tax is zero in the long run if and only if there is no binding constraint on the initial capital tax rate. This finding contrasts with Armenter (2008) who argues that zero long-run capital taxes reappear in models of incomplete factor taxation as long as the government is barred from manipulating initial asset wealth. The reason for this difference is that the two constraints cannot both be binding at the same time. Hence, in Armenter’s (2008) analysis, the initial asset value constraint is necessarily more restrictive than the constraint on the initial capital tax rate.

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    Authors: Frank T Denton; Byron G Spencer;

    The standard period life table is based entirely on the death probabilities of the given period. Popular (not expert) usage of life expectancies from a period table typically ignores the fact that the expectancies make no allowance for future declines in mortality rates. But the historical record provides overwhelming evidence to suggest that declines will continue, and the period expectancies can therefore be misleading, in a practical context. We propose a "dynamic" extension of the period table that draws out the implications, for survivorship and life expectancy, of observed rates of change of death probabilities.

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    Article . 2011
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  • Authors: Lawrence Schembri;
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    Authors: Jean-Yves Duclos; Abdelkrim Araar; John Giles;

    The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, it proposes a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, it provides corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty. Third, it applies these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in China using a rich panel data set that extends over 17 years. Alternative measurement techniques are found to yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty. The precision of the estimates is also considerably enhanced by simple statistical corrections. This research was partly funded by Canada's SSHRC, by Québec's FQRSC and by the National Science Foundation (SES-0214702). It was also carried out with support from the Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research Network, which is financed by the Government of Canada through the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), and by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). 12 páginas, 6 figuras, 4 tablas.-- El pdf del artículo es el documento de trabajo.

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    Journal of Development Economics
    Article . 2010
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    Article . 2006
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      Journal of Development Economics
      Article . 2010
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  • Authors: Matthew Gentzkow; Nathan Petek; Jesse M. Shapiro; Michael Sinkinson;

    Using data from 1869 to 1928, we estimate the effect of party control of state governments on the entry, exit, circulation, prices, number of pages, and content of Republican and Democratic daily newspapers. We exploit changes over time in party control of the governorship and state legislatures in a differences-in-differences design. We exploit close gubernatorial elections and state legislatures with small majorities in a parallel regression-discontinuity design. Neither method reveals evidence that the party in power affects the partisan composition of the press. Our confidence intervals rule out modest effects, and we find little evidence of incumbent party influence even in times and places with high political stakes or low commercial stakes. The one exception is the Reconstruction South, an episode that we discuss in detail.

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  • Authors: Bazhanov, Andrei; Hartwick, John;

    Beckmann's interaction model has each resident touching base in face-to-face activity with every other resident at the other's residence per unit time. We re-work his resulting ''interaction city'' with each resident ''operating with'' a Cobb-Douglas utility function. Similar but somewhat ''richer'' outcomes occur. We also investigate a new case with intermediate dispersion of face-to-face activity, one with scale economies in trip-making.

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