• Canada
• Research dataclose
• Other research productsclose
• European Commission close
• IT close
• GR close
• English close

Bias correction of climate variables is a standard practice in climate change impact (CCI) studies. Various methodologies have been developed within the framework of quantile mapping. However, it is well known that quantile mapping may significantly modify the long-term statistics due to the time dependency of the temperature bias. Here, a method to overcome this issue without compromising the day-to-day correction statistics is presented. The methodology separates the modeled temperature signal into a normalized and a residual component relative to the modeled reference period climatology, in order to adjust the biases only for the former and preserve the signal of the later. The results show that this method allows for the preservation of the originally modeled long-term signal in the mean, the standard deviation and higher and lower percentiles of temperature. To illustrate the improvements, the methodology is tested on daily time series obtained from five Euro CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs).

A graph drawing is greedy if, for every ordered pair of vertices (x,y), there is a path from x to y such that the Euclidean distance to y decreases monotonically at every vertex of the path. Greedy drawings support a simple geometric routing scheme, in which any node that has to send a packet to a destination "greedily" forwards the packet to any neighbor that is closer to the destination than itself, according to the Euclidean distance in the drawing. In a greedy drawing such a neighbor always exists and hence this routing scheme is guaranteed to succeed. In 2004 Papadimitriou and Ratajczak stated two conjectures related to greedy drawings. The greedy embedding conjecture states that every 3-connected planar graph admits a greedy drawing. The convex greedy embedding conjecture asserts that every 3-connected planar graph admits a planar greedy drawing in which the faces are delimited by convex polygons. In 2008 the greedy embedding conjecture was settled in the positive by Leighton and Moitra. In this paper we prove that every 3-connected planar graph admits a planar greedy drawing. Apart from being a strengthening of Leighton and Moitra's result, this theorem constitutes a natural intermediate step towards a proof of the convex greedy embedding conjecture.

Global climate model (GCM) outputs feature systematic biases that render them unsuitable for direct use by impact models, especially for hydrological studies. To deal with this issue, many bias correction techniques have been developed to adjust the modelled variables against observations, focusing mainly on precipitation and temperature. However, most state-of-the-art hydrological models require more forcing variables, in addition to precipitation and temperature, such as radiation, humidity, air pressure, and wind speed. The biases in these additional variables can hinder hydrological simulations, but the effect of the bias of each variable is unexplored. Here we examine the effect of GCM biases on historical runoff simulations for each forcing variable individually, using the JULES land surface model set up at the global scale. Based on the quantified effect, we assess which variables should be included in bias correction procedures. To this end, a partial correction bias assessment experiment is conducted, to test the effect of the biases of six climate variables from a set of three GCMs. The effect of the bias of each climate variable individually is quantified by comparing the changes in simulated runoff that correspond to the bias of each tested variable. A methodology for the classification of the effect of biases in four effect categories (ECs), based on the magnitude and sensitivity of runoff changes, is developed and applied. Our results show that, while globally the largest changes in modelled runoff are caused by precipitation and temperature biases, there are regions where runoff is substantially affected by and/or more sensitive to radiation and humidity. Global maps of bias ECs reveal the regions mostly affected by the bias of each variable. Based on our findings, for global-scale applications, bias correction of radiation and humidity, in addition to that of precipitation and temperature, is advised. Finer spatial-scale information is also provided, to suggest bias correction of variables beyond precipitation and temperature for regional studies.

Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 causes invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in sub-Saharan Africa, targeting susceptible HIV + , malarial or malnourished individuals. An in-depth genomic comparison between the ST313 isolate D23580, and the well-characterized ST19 isolate 4/74 that causes gastroenteritis across the globe, revealed extensive synteny. To understand how the 856 nucleotide variations generated phenotypic differences, we devised a large-scale experimental approach that involved the global gene expression analysis of strains D23580 and 4/74 grown in sixteen infection-relevant growth conditions. Comparison of transcriptional patterns identified virulence and metabolic genes that were differentially expressed between D23580 versus 4/74, many of which were validated by proteomics. We also uncovered the S. Typhimurium D23580 and 4/74 genes that showed expression differences during infection of murine macrophages. Our comparative transcriptomic data are presented in a new enhanced version of the Salmonella expression compendium SalComD23580: bioinf.gen.tcd.ie/cgi-bin/salcom_v2.pl . We discovered that the ablation of melibiose utilization was caused by 3 independent SNP mutations in D23580 that are shared across ST313 lineage 2, suggesting that the ability to catabolise this carbon source has been negatively selected during ST313 evolution. The data revealed a novel plasmid maintenance system involving a plasmid-encoded CysS cysteinyl-tRNA synthetase, highlighting the power of large-scale comparative multi-condition analyses to pinpoint key phenotypic differences between bacterial pathovariants.

Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37–42∘ S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37∘ 40′ S–38∘ 50′ S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

We report three newly discovered exoplanets from the SuperWASP survey. WASP-127b is a heavily inflated super-Neptune of mass 0.18Mj and radius 1.35Rj. This is one of the least massive planets discovered by the WASP project. It orbits a bright host star (V = 10.16) of spectral type G5 with a period of 4.17 days.WASP-127b is a low density planet which has an extended atmosphere with a scale height of 2500+/-400 km, making it an ideal candidate for transmission spectroscopy. WASP-136b and WASP-138b are both hot Jupiters with mass and radii of 1.51 Mj and 1.38 Rj, and 1.22 Mj and 1.09 Rj, respectively. WASP-136b is in a 5.22-day orbit around an F9 subgiant star with a mass of 1.41 Msun and a radius of 2.21 Rsun. The discovery of WASP-136b could help constraint the characteristics of the giant planet population around evolved stars. WASP-138b orbits an F7 star with a period of 3.63 days. Its radius agrees with theoretical values from standard models, suggesting the presence of a heavy element core with a mass of 10 Mearth. The discovery of these new planets helps in exploring the diverse compositional range of short-period planets, and will aid our understanding of the physical characteristics of both gas giants and low density planets.

The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of loci associated with Crohns disease (CD), however, as with all complex diseases, deriving pathogenic mechanisms from these non-coding GWAS discoveries has been challenging. To complement GWAS and better define actionable biological targets, we analysed sequenced data from more than 30,000 CD patients and 80,000 population controls. We observe rare coding variants in established CD susceptibility genes as well as ten genes where coding variation directly implicates the gene in disease risk for the first time.

The second Cabauw Intercomparison of Nitrogen Dioxide measuring Instruments (CINDI-2) took place in Cabauw (the Netherlands) in September 2016 with the aim of assessing the consistency of multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of tropospheric species (NO2, HCHO, O3, HONO, CHOCHO and O4). This was achieved through the coordinated operation of 36 spectrometers operated by 24 groups from all over the world, together with a wide range of supporting reference observations (in situ analysers, balloon sondes, lidars, long-path DOAS, direct-sun DOAS, Sun photometer and meteorological instruments). In the presented study, the retrieved CINDI-2 MAX-DOAS trace gas (NO2, HCHO) and aerosol vertical profiles of 15 participating groups using different inversion algorithms are compared and validated against the colocated supporting observations, with the focus on aerosol optical thicknesses (AOTs), trace gas vertical column densities (VCDs) and trace gas surface concentrations. The algorithms are based on three different techniques: six use the optimal estimation method, two use a parameterized approach and one algorithm relies on simplified radiative transport assumptions and analytical calculations. To assess the agreement among the inversion algorithms independent of inconsistencies in the trace gas slant column density acquisition, participants applied their inversion to a common set of slant columns. Further, important settings like the retrieval grid, profiles of O3, temperature and pressure as well as aerosol optical properties and a priori assumptions (for optimal estimation algorithms) have been prescribed to reduce possible sources of discrepancies. The profiling results were found to be in good qualitative agreement: most participants obtained the same features in the retrieved vertical trace gas and aerosol distributions; however, these are sometimes at different altitudes and of different magnitudes. Under clear-sky conditions, the root-mean-square differences (RMSDs) among the results of individual participants are in the range of 0.01–0.1 for AOTs, (1.5–15) ×1014molec.cm-2 for trace gas (NO2, HCHO) VCDs and (0.3–8)×1010molec.cm-3 for trace gas surface concentrations. These values compare to approximate average optical thicknesses of 0.3, trace gas vertical columns of 90×1014molec.cm-2 and trace gas surface concentrations of 11×1010molec.cm-3 observed over the campaign period. The discrepancies originate from differences in the applied techniques, the exact implementation of the algorithms and the user-defined settings that were not prescribed. For the comparison against supporting observations, the RMSDs increase to a range of 0.02–0.2 against AOTs from the Sun photometer, (11–55)×1014molec.cm-2 against trace gas VCDs from direct-sun DOAS observations and (0.8–9)×1010molec.cm-3 against surface concentrations from the long-path DOAS instrument. This increase in RMSDs is most likely caused by uncertainties in the supporting data, spatiotemporal mismatch among the observations and simplified assumptions particularly on aerosol optical properties made for the MAX-DOAS retrieval. As a side investigation, the comparison was repeated with the participants retrieving profiles from their own differential slant column densities (dSCDs) acquired during the campaign. In this case, the consistency among the participants degrades by about 30 % for AOTs, by 180 % (40 %) for HCHO (NO2) VCDs and by 90 % (20 %) for HCHO (NO2) surface concentrations. In former publications and also during this comparison study, it was found that MAX-DOAS vertically integrated aerosol extinction coefficient profiles systematically underestimate the AOT observed by the Sun photometer. For the first time, it is quantitatively shown that for optimal estimation algorithms this can be largely explained and compensated by considering biases arising from the reduced sensitivity of MAX-DOAS observations to higher altitudes and associated a priori assumptions.