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Abstract. A micrometeorological experiment was conducted in the summer of 2008, at Peyto Glacier, during four meltwater production periods of 1, 3, 4 and 5 days duration, the last two days marked by late summer snow cover. The data include a breakdown of net radiation into its short- and long-wave components, as well as wind speed, temperature and humidity profile data for use in bulk transfer estimates of sensible heat and moisture transfer. In addition, a hydrological experiment was conducted, the data comprising sonic sounder measurements of ablation and stage level records of discharge from a supraglacial microbasin. As expected, the ratio of daily average runoff flow measurement to energy budget flow estimates is less than one on most days because of weathering crust development. Also, the conversion of stage level data into discharge from a supraglacial catchment presents challenges, notably defining the area of a loosely defined basin and specifying stage level on a downward moving surface. Nevertheless, it is clear that peak discharge lags peak meltwater energy input by periods of four to six hours. A suitably lagged flow estimate can be achieved by passing the flow through a simple storage reservoir, using delay times of 14.5, 15, 7.5 and 9 h for each respective measurement period. This suggests that a substantial part of the delay in runoff from a glacier basin is tied up in ice surface hydrological processes.

Abstract. Surface waters in Europe and North America have begun to recover in response to decreases in emissions of acidifying pollutants to the atmosphere. Variations in climate influence chemical and biological recovery. Part of the EU project Eurolimpacs (Integrated project to evaluate the impacts of global change on European freshwater ecosystems) focuses on the interactive effects of acid deposition and climate on freshwater ecosystems. This special issue of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences is devoted to this topic, and consists of studies conducted in 8 countries on aspects regarding episodes, nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, recovery and biological effects.

Abstract. It is well established that the Earth's climate system has warmed significantly over the past several decades, and in association there have been widespread changes in various other Earth system components. This has been especially prevalent in the cold regions of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Examples of these changes can be found within the western and northern interior of Canada, a region that exemplifies the scientific and societal issues faced in many other similar parts of the world, and where impacts have global-scale consequences. This region has been the geographic focus of a large amount of previous research on changing climatic, cryospheric, and hydrological regimes in recent decades, while current initiatives such as the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) introduced in this review seek to further develop the understanding and diagnosis of this change and hence improve the capacity to predict future change. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the observed changes in various Earth system components and a concise and up-to-date regional picture of some of the temporal trends over the interior of western Canada since the mid- or late 20th century. The focus is on air temperature, precipitation, seasonal snow cover, mountain glaciers, permafrost, freshwater ice cover, and river discharge. Important long-term observational networks and data sets are described, and qualitative linkages among the changing components are highlighted. Increases in air temperature are the most notable changes within the domain, rising on average 2 °C throughout the western interior since 1950. This increase in air temperature is associated with hydrologically important changes to precipitation regimes and unambiguous declines in snow cover depth, persistence, and spatial extent. Consequences of warming air temperatures have caused mountain glaciers to recede at all latitudes, permafrost to thaw at its southern limit, and active layers over permafrost to thicken. Despite these changes, integrated effects on stream flow are complex and often offsetting. Following a review of the current literature, we provide insight from a network of northern research catchments and other sites detailing how climate change confounds hydrological responses at smaller scales, and we recommend several priority research areas that will be a focus of continued work in CCRN. Given the complex interactions and process responses to climate change, it is argued that further conceptual understanding and quantitative diagnosis of the mechanisms of change over a range of scales is required before projections of future change can be made with confidence.

Abstract. Rivers in Southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change because much of the river water originates as snow in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains. Changes in likelihood of forest disturbance (wildfire, insects, logging, etc.) may also have impacts that are compounded by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate and forest changes on streamflow in the upper parts of the Oldman River in Southern Alberta using a conceptual hydrological model, HBV-EC (Hydrologiska Byråns attenbalansavdelning, Environment Canada), in combination with a stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) driven by GCM (global climate model) output climate data. Three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) are selected to cover the range of possible future climate conditions (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). The GCM projected less than a 10% increase in precipitation in winter and a similar amount of precipitation decrease in summer. These changes in projected precipitation resulted in up to a 200% (9.3 mm) increase in winter streamflow in February and up to a 63% (31.2 mm) decrease in summer flow in June. Flow also decreased in July and August, when irrigation is important; these reduced river flows during this season could impact agriculture production. The amplification in the streamflow is mostly driven by the projected increase in temperature that is predicted to melt winter snow earlier, resulting in lower water availability during the summer. Uncertainty analysis was completed using a guided GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) approach to obtain the best 100 parameter sets and associated ranges of streamflows. The impacts of uncertainty in streamflows were higher in spring and summer than in winter and fall. Forest change compounded the climate change impact by increasing the winter flow; however, it did not reduce the summer flow.

Abstract. Simulation of areal snowmelt and snowcover depletion over time can be carried out by applying point-scale melt rate computations to distributions of snow water equivalent (SWE). In alpine basins, this can be done by considering these processes separately on individual slope units. However, differences in melt timing and rates arise at smaller spatial scales due to the variability in SWE and snowpack cold content, which affects the timing of melt initiation, depletion of the snowcover and spatial extent of the snowmelt runoff contributing area (SRCA). This study examined the effects of variability in SWE, internal energy and applied melt energy on melt rates and timing, and snowcover depletion in a small cold regions alpine basin over various scales ranging from point to basin. Melt rate computations were performed using a physically based energy balance snowmelt routine (Snobal) in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) and compared with measurements at 3 meteorological stations over a ridge within the basin. At the point scale, a negative association between daily melt rates and SWE was observed in the early melt period, with deeper snow requiring greater energy inputs to initiate melt. SWE distributions over the basin (stratified by slope) were measured using snow surveys and repeat LiDAR depth estimates, and used together with computed melt rates to simulate the areal snowcover depletion. Comparison with observations from georeferenced oblique photographs showed an improvement in simulated areal snowcover depletion curves when accounting for the variability in melt rate with depth of SWE in the early melt period. Finally, the SRCA was characterized as the product of the snowcovered area and the fraction of the SWE distribution undergoing active melt and producing an appreciable runoff quantity on each slope unit. Results for each slope were then aggregated to give the basin scale SRCA. The SRCA is controlled by the variability of melt amongst slope units and over individual SWE distributions, the variability of SWE, and the resulting snowcover depletion patterns over the basin.

Significant challenges from changes in climate and land use face sustainable water use in the Canadian Prairies ecozone. The region has experienced significant warming since the mid-20th century, and continued warming of an additional 2 ∘C by 2050 is expected. This paper aims to enhance understanding of climate controls on Prairie basin hydrology through numerical model experiments. It approaches this by developing a basin-classification-based virtual modelling framework for a portion of the Prairie region and applying the modelling framework to investigate the hydrological sensitivity of one Prairie basin class (High Elevation Grasslands) to changes in climate. High Elevation Grasslands dominate much of central and southern Alberta and parts of south-western Saskatchewan, with outliers in eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba. The experiments revealed that High Elevation Grassland snowpacks are highly sensitive to changes in climate but that this varies geographically. Spring maximum snow water equivalent in grasslands decreases 8 % ∘C−1 of warming. Climate scenario simulations indicated that a 2 ∘C increase in temperature requires at least an increase of 20 % in mean annual precipitation for there to be enough additional snowfall to compensate for enhanced melt losses. The sensitivity in runoff is less linear and varies substantially across the study domain: simulations using 6 ∘C of warming, and a 30 % increase in mean annual precipitation yields simulated decreases in annual runoff of 40 % in climates of the western Prairie but 55 % increases in climates of eastern portions. These results can be used to identify those areas of the region that are most sensitive to climate change and highlight focus areas for monitoring and adaptation. The results also demonstrate how a basin classification-based virtual modelling framework can be applied to evaluate regional-scale impacts of climate change with relatively high spatial resolution in a robust, effective and efficient manner.

Abstract. In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50–100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ∼ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

Abstract. Local-scale advection of energy from warm snow-free surfaces to cold snow-covered surfaces is an important component of the energy balance during snowcover depletion. Unfortunately, this process is difficult to quantify in one-dimensional snowmelt models. This manuscript proposes a simple sensible and latent heat advection model for snowmelt situations that can be readily coupled to one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt models. An existing advection parameterization was coupled to a conceptual frozen soil infiltration surface water retention model to estimate the areal average sensible and latent heat advection contributions to snowmelt. The proposed model compared well with observations of latent and sensible heat advection providing confidence in the process parameterizations and the assumptions applied. Snowcovered area observations from unmanned aerial vehicle imagery were used to update and evaluate the scaling properties of snow patch area distribution and lengths. Model dynamics and snowmelt implications were explored within an idealized modelling experiment, by coupling to a one-dimensional energy balance snowmelt model. Dry, snow-free surfaces were associated with negative latent heat advection fluxes that compensated for positive sensible heat advection fluxes and so limited the net influence of advection on snowmelt. Latent and sensible heat advection fluxes both contributed positive fluxes to snow when snow-free surfaces were wet and enhanced net advection contributions to snowmelt. The increased net advection fluxes from wet surfaces typically develop towards the end of snowmelt and offset decreases in the one-dimensional areal average melt energy that declines with snowcovered area. The new model can be readily incorporated into existing one-dimensional snowmelt hydrology and land surface scheme models and will foster improvements in snowmelt understanding and predictions.

Abstract. Earth's climate and water cycle are highly dependent on terrestrial evapotranspiration and the associated flux of latent heat. Despite its pivotal role, predictions of terrestrial evapotranspiration remain uncertain due to highly dynamic and spatially heterogeneous land surface dryness. Although it has been hypothesized for over 50 years that land dryness becomes embedded in atmospheric conditions, underlying physical mechanisms for this land-atmospheric coupling remain elusive. Here, we use a novel physically-based evaporation model to demonstrate that near-surface atmospheric relative humidity (rh) fundamentally coevolves with rh at the land surface. The new model expresses the latent heat flux as a combination of thermodynamic processes in the atmospheric surface layer. Our approach is similar to the Penman-Monteith equation but uses only routinely measured abiotic variables, avoiding the need to parameterize surface resistance. We applied our new model to 212 in-situ eddy covariance sites around the globe and to the FLUXCOM global-scale evaporation product. Vertical rh gradients were widely observed to be near zero on daily to yearly time scales for local as well as global scales, implying an emergent land-atmosphere equilibrium. This equilibrium allows for accurate evaporation estimates using only the atmospheric state and radiative energy, regardless of land surface conditions and vegetation controls. Our results also demonstrate that the latent heat portion of available energy (i.e., evaporative fraction) at local scales is mainly controlled by the vertical rh gradient. By demonstrating how land surface conditions become encoded in the atmospheric state, this study will improve our fundamental understanding of Earth's climate and the terrestrial water cycle.

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.