MINISTERIE VAN INFRASTRUCTUUR EN WATERSTAAT

In 2016, the European Commission and the Government of the Netherlands will co-host the fourth edition of the International Climate Change Adaptation Conference, called ‘Adaptation Futures 2016’, with the initiators of the conference series, the Global Programme of Research on Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA). The overall objective of this action is to support the preparation and implementation of the 'Adaptation Futures 2016’ conference. The specific objectives are to contribute to the coordination of the conference planning, the overall and local organisation of the programme and venue, the participation of delegates from economically developed and less/least economically developed countries, and the organisation of an industrial exhibition. This proposal relates to the work programme's topic number 8 'International Conference 'Adaptation Futures' – The Netherlands, May 2016' in chapter 'Other Actions' of the revised HORIZON 2020 WORK PROGRAMME 2014 – 2015 for 'Climate action, environment, resource efficiency and raw materials', adopted on 10 December 2013 with a revised version for the 2015 topics (European Commission Decision C (2014)4995 of 22 July 2014). As stated in the work programme, The Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment of the Netherlands has been identified as a designated beneficiary of the grant to implement the coordination and support action. The ministry is experienced in organising international conferences of the scope and at the scale of the 'Adaptation Futures 2016' conference, as recently shown by the organisation of the Deltas in Times of Change II conference in Rotterdam in September 2014.

In 2015, nearly all nations agreed on a set of ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure environment protection and human development. Accounting for the coherence of the overall set of goals presents a major scientific challenge as there are many complex relationships and feedbacks between them and across various scales (local to global, near- and long-term). However, in fact very little scientific information exists on how to achieve such a diverse set of goals simultaneously. In the proposed research, I will address the scientific gap by developing a novel set of model-based scenarios that explore the efforts required to achieve a set of key sustainable development targets by 2050 simultaneously (i.e. using a backcasting approach). These targets are based on the SDGs and other international agreements, and cover key sustainability issues such as food production, energy and land use, climate change, water scarcity, and nutrient cycles. The purpose of the analysis is to identify 1) transformation processes needed for achieving these targets (including timing), 2) key synergies and trade-offs among sustainability issues, and 3) the relationships between different geographic scales. In PICASSO, I will use the integrated assessment model IMAGE 3.0 to develop such scenarios and explore the key linkages. For this purpose, important model improvements will be made to better cover the feedbacks and response options relevant for the SDG targets. Additional project activities will cover uncertainty analysis, and questions related to implementation (the role of different actors in these transitions). Stakeholder interaction is vital and will be formalised in a project forum with key stakeholders that will meet on a regular basis. The scenarios may thus be used to implement and evaluate the SDGs, and they will also result in new scientific understanding of integrated response strategies that can be used by other researchers in more detailed analysis.

Our global economy is intrinsically dependent on nature, and at the same time is playing a major role in its degradation. Recognition of this fact has grown substantially in the past decade, as evidenced in the EU Biodiversity strategy for 2030. However, transformative, system-wide changes are still needed to achieve the nature-positive outcomes required to 'bend the curve' of biodiversity loss. While the business case for economic actors to address biodiversity is becoming clearer in some sectors, it is still lacking in others, particularly those more removed from direct interactions with nature. SUSTAIN (Strengthening Understanding and Strategies of business To Assess and Integrate Nature) will bring together a multi-stakeholder and multi-disciplinary team to strengthen understanding and awareness of how all economic activities depend and impact on biodiversity. The project will build on existing work within the business and biodiversity space to develop and validate a database of business dependencies and impacts, develop methods that actors can use to reduce biodiversity-related risks, and a toolbox to support their application. The consortium will drive uptake of these resources through dissemination of targeted business case materials, drawing on existing networks and expertise in communicating with businesses, financial institutions and other key stakeholders.