Impact assessments in the areas of agriculture are (partly) based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives, and to explore future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. SUPREMA comes to address this challenge by proposing a meta-platform that supports modelling groups linked already through various other platforms and networks. SUPREMA should help close the gaps between expectations of policy makers and the actual capacity of models to deliver relevant policy analysis. The SUPREMA model family includes a set of ‘core models’ that are already used in support of key European impact assessments in agriculture, trade, climate and bioenergy policies. The meta-platform, the enhanced linked system of existing core models and some key applications melt down in a Roadmap for future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. The project has four coherent objectives: 1. A SUPREMA roadmap of future directions for modelling will be developed. 2. An enhanced and strengthened SUPREMA model family will be created. 3. Future directions of modelling in agriculture will be explored and tested. 4. A SUPREMA meta-platform will be established, to share and discuss the findings of the work with existing model platforms, research communities, and policy makers. The objectives of SUPREMA are iterative in nature and involve strong engagement with policy makers, and interaction with the scientific community, at the different stages. The models included in SUPREMA cover different spatial scales of analysis, agricultural activities, representation of technologies, but also different aspects of its market environment as well as multiple policies affecting agriculture directly or indirectly.
In order to support the ambitious goals to raise the research profile of the coordinating institution and strengthen its research excellence in the highly demanding field of global climate change impact on the forest and whole bio-based sector-leading institutions agreed to collaborate on the jointly proposed project. The central European forests and its wood industry are facing strong and rapid changes - the most prominent being the Global Climate Change. The presented twinning proposal ‘Adaption strategies in forestry under global climate change impact’ (ASFORCLIC) analyses and prepares the forest-wood value chain for these changes including higher appearance and use of the lesser-used wood species. Over the last years, the Mendel University in Brno (MENDELU) has become a nucleus for an expert forum of partners in Central, Northern and Eastern Europe that facilitates integrated research activities and enhances communication among scientists, technologists, policy decision-makers, economists, and the public. Within the project, the participating institutions will form three working groups (WGs): (1) forest production and environment – (2) wood quantity and qualities – (3) market, economics and policy. WG1 focuses on the effects of the changing environment on forests’ tree species spectrum and structural composition, health and growth, and analyses different adaption strategies. WG2 studies the utilization of new wood-material under anticipated changes in wood assortments and properties. New material can be adapted and modified, or even be used for completely new products on the market. WG3 will accompany the changes in forests and wood products from an economic perspective and investigate how political decisions support promising adaption strategies. The project focuses on the definition of joint research avenues within and also gives specifically focus on the support provided to the Early-stage researchers.
Agricultural policies like the EU CAP are widening the scope to contribute to the Paris climate agreement and the Sustainability Development Goals. From the Commission's legislative proposals (June 2018) it is expected that the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be redesigned in line with this. Consequences are among others a move of the CAP to farm specific measures and an improved link to environment, climate change and ecosystem services. It is proposed that Member States and regions develop their own CAP strategic plan with more attention to the regional implementation of the CAP. This wider scope and measures with a focus on individual farmers ask for a new generation of impact assessment tools. Current state-of-the-art agricultural models are not able to deliver individual farm and local effects as they are specified at higher levels of aggregation. Making use of improved possibilities opened up by progress in the ICT area, our project MIND STEP will improve exploitation of available agricultural and biophysical data and will include the individual decision making (IDM) unit in policy models. Based on a common data framework MIND STEP will develop IDM models, including agent-based models, focussing on different topics in an integrated manner in different regional case studies. The IDM models will be estimated and calibrated using agricultural statistics and big datasets, drawing on established econometric and evolving machine learning techniques and using both traditional models of optimising behaviour and theories from behavioural economics. MIND STEP will closely cooperate with a range of stakeholders to co-create and apply the MIND STEP model toolbox to selected regional, national and EU wide policy cases. MIND STEP cooperates with other consortia under the topic to share ideas and innovations. Finally, MIND STEP develops an Exploitation Strategy and Plan to guarantee the sustainability of the project results upon its completion.
The biodiversity, health and services of European marine ecosystems is severely threatened as cumulative human pressures and impacts continue to spread and increase throughout our seas and along our coasts. In order to put biodiversity on the path to recovery and thus achieve the ambitious policy goals set out by the EU Green Deal and the Biodiversity Strategy 2030, we need well informed science advice and operational decision-support tools allowing end-users to decide on conservation actions for biodiversity protection (e.g., MPAs), while at the same time seek to minimize trade-offs with other human use of ocean space (e.g., fishing, off shore energy and shipping). B-USEFUL will develop and deliver user-oriented solutions fit for uptake and implementation in decision making by effectively building upon existing European data infrastructures and governance frameworks for ecosystem-based management advice and marine spatial planning. This will be achieved by delivering upon the following objectives (here presented in short form) addressing the expected outcomes and impacts of the call and destination, namely to: (i) identify end-user needs; (ii) co-develop biodiversity indicators, targets and scenarios; (iii) create a standardized biodiversity and pressure data base; (iv) assess the status and cumulative impacts on biodiversity; (v) quantify risk and vulnerability to biodiversity loss; (vi) perform model forecasts of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services; (vii) co-develop an interactive, online decision-support tool fit for management strategy evaluation of actions ensuring biodiversity protection. The project will embrace a process of co-creation where all outputs are iteratively co-developed, validated and approved by end-users. This serves not only to build mutual trust and credibility, but also facilitate direct uptake and implementation of the user-oriented tools and knowledge within operational decision-making for marine management and conservation.
Trade is a central factor in shaping not only global, but also regional and local development. Trade policy has an especially important part to play in achieving the SDGs. The premise for this proposal is that trade has the power to produce positive outcomes when the policies which define the rules of the game are framed and designed in a way to promote access to markets, fair prices and standards of living for farmers, as well as alleviating rural poverty and ensuring sustainable farming practices. Addressing the relation between trade and SDGs requires an integrated approach to policy-making and inclusive governance. The main objective of this project is to contribute to build new opportunities for fostering the positive sustainability impacts of trade supported by improved design and framing of trade policy at national, EU and global level, including WTO modernization, increased policy coherence at different domains including agricultural, energy, climate, environmental and nutritional policies. The SDGs agenda requires a holistic approach allowing the contextual evaluation of several dimensions at the same time by measuring co-benefits and trade-offs. For this reason, we propose an integrated and systemic approach that combines several quantitative models from different perspectives, and qualitative methods such as specific country/supply chain case studies, Lab-in-the Field experiments and a dynamic trade game considering the fact that SDGs are highly context-related. A wide consultation process involving stakeholders both in the EU and in the partner countries in all the project stages will ensure the transparency and balance of conclusions and policy recommendations. The proposal is directly connected to the work programme “Food security, sustainable agriculture and forestry, marine, maritime and inland water research and the bioeconomy” through analysing how agricultural trade can contribute to meet global sustainability challenges and objectives.