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Ultraviolet Radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative

Authors: Kévin Lamy; Thierry Portafaix; Béatrice Josse; Colette Brogniez; Sophie Godin-Beekmann; Hassan Bencherif; Laura E. Revell; +30 Authors

Ultraviolet Radiation modelling using output from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative

Abstract

We have derived values of the Ultraviolet Index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9% and 10.6%. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2–4%) in the tropical belt (30°N-30°S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0, and found a 2.3% decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 to 5.5% for RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9% for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does.

Country
France
Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Ozone Northern Hemisphere Noon Atmospheric sciences Latitude Aerosol Troposphere chemistry.chemical_compound chemistry Environmental science Ultraviolet index Southern Hemisphere

Keywords

[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Article, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [ SDU.STU.CL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology

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    influence
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    impulse
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    Top 10%
  • citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    10
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Funded by
SNSF| Volcanic Eruptions and their impact on future Climate (VEC)
Project
  • Funder: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
  • Project Code: 169241
  • Funding stream: Projects | Project funding
,
SNSF| Study to determine Spectral Solar Irradiance and its impact on the middle atmosphere (SIMA)
Project
  • Funder: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
  • Project Code: 163206
  • Funding stream: Projects | Project funding
iis
,
EC| STRATOCLIM
Project
STRATOCLIM
Stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes for better climate predictions
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 603557
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
iis
,
SNSF| Future and Past Solar Influence on the Terrestrial Climate II
Project
  • Funder: Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
  • Project Code: 147659
  • Funding stream: Programmes | Sinergia
iis
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