Actions
  • shareshare
  • link
  • cite
  • add
add
auto_awesome_motion View all 3 versions
Publication . Article . Other literature type . 2016

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Lamprini Papadimitriou; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Manolis Grillakis; Ioannis K. Tsanis;
Open Access
English
Published: 01 May 2016
Abstract

Abstract. Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. It is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).

Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Climate model Global warming Hydrology (agriculture) Surface runoff Water cycle General Circulation Model Environmental science Forcing (mathematics) Climatology Climate change

Library of Congress Subject Headings: lcsh:Technology lcsh:T lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering lcsh:TD1-1066 lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation lcsh:G lcsh:Environmental sciences lcsh:GE1-350

82 references, page 1 of 9

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247-2260, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2247- 2015, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1- 7, doi:10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012.

Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale, J. Hydrol., 486, 351-364, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010, 2013.

Arnell, N. W. and Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios, Climatc Change, 122, 127- 140, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4, 2014. [OpenAIRE]

Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A., Smith, P., and Warren, R. F.: A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 512-519, doi:10.1038/nclimate1793, 2013.

Bakopoulou, C., Bulygina, N., Butler, A., and McIntyre, N.: Sensitivity analysis and parameter identifiability of the land surface model JULES at the point scale in permeable catchments, Proc. of British Hydrological Society National Symposium, Dundee, June 2012.

Best, M. J., Pryor, M., Clark, D. B., Rooney, G. G., Essery, R. L. H., Ménard, C. B., Edwards, J. M., Hendry, M. A., Porson, A., Gedney, N., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Blyth, E., Boucher, O., Cox, P. M., Grimmond, C. S. B., and Harding, R. J.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011.

Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Hemming, D. L., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A., and Sanderson, M. G.: When could global warming reach 4 C?, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London A-Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 369, 67-84, doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292, 2011.

Betts, R. A., Golding, N., Gonzalez, P., Gornall, J., Kahana, R., Kay, G., Mitchell, L., and Wiltshire, A.: Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways, Biogeosciences, 12, 1317-1338, doi:10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

Beven, K. J. and Kirkby, M. J.: A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology / Un modèle à base physique de zone d'appel variable de l'hydrologie du bassin versant, Hydrol. Sci. Bull., 24, 43-69, doi:10.1080/02626667909491834, 1979.

Funded by
EC| HELIX
Project
HELIX
High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 603864
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
Related to Research communities
moresidebar